Mali ready to trip up hosts

 

After making a healthy 15% profit on the opening round of the tournament, James Eastham casts his eye across the first two quarter-finals.

 

South Africa v Mali (Sat)

Live on British Eurosport & ITV4, 18:30 GMT, Match Odds: South Africa 2.4, Mali 3.45, The Draw 3.2

It would be fair to say South Africa were unconvincing in the opening round of the finals.

 

Heading out of the tournament in their final group game, they needed a late Siyabonga Sangweni equaliser against Morocco to earn the 2-2 draw that saw them through.

 

Mali were equally unimpressive on their way to second place in Group B. They needed a late Seydou Keita goal to beat Niger (1-0) in their opening match, then lost to eventual group winners Ghana by the same scoreline and held on for a 1-1 draw against outsiders DR Congo in their final game. Three matches, four points and only two goals scored; the stats make difficult reading for Patrice Carteron's side.

 

As the two sides have been as good - or bad - as each other, South Africa look too short. Yes, they have home advantage, but that has proved little advantage so far. I would rather oppose than support the hosts at the available prices. The smart bet is to back Mali with some sort of Asian Handicap start.

 

Instinctively this feels likely to be a low-goals game as five of six games involving these two sides in the first round featured two goals or fewer. Historically, however, quarter-finals are higher-scoring than you may think - 11 of 20 last-eight clashes at the last five finals have featured three goals or more.

 

If you are looking for a goals bet, I would take Over 2.5 Goals at 2.92 instead of Under 2.5 Goals at 1.51.

 

 

Ghana v Cape Verde (Sat)

Live on British Eurosport & ITV4, 15:00 GMT, Match Odds: Ghana 1.72, Cape Verde 6.4, The Draw 3.65

Before the tournament began this column backed Cape Verde to win the tournament at 80.0 with a view to laying off should they progress to the quarter-finals.

 

Cape Verde have made it to the last eight so we're sitting on a potential profit. They've come in to 27.0 in the outright market so you can lay off for a small profit or cover yourself by backing Ghana to go through here. With the latter, you'll either make money on Ghana progressing or be able to lay off Cape Verde at shorter odds in the outright market should they make it through to the semi-finals.

 

Looking at this game independently of open bets, the Match Odds look about right - i.e. Ghana are odds-on favourites to win in 90 minutes. After a nervy start in their opening game against DR Congo (2-2), The Black Stars improved, beating Mali (1-0) and then, more convincingly, Niger (3-0).

 

At times, Cape Verde played some delightful football in the opening round and have exceeded most observers' expectations by making it this far on their first-ever appearance at the finals. However, it is difficult to make a strong case for them seeing off the tournament second favourites (Ghana are 4.6 to lift the trophy).

 

Recommended Bets

Best Bet: Mali +0&+0.5 v South Africa @ 1.95

5pts Ghana to qualify v Cape Verde @ 1.33 if you backed Cape Verde at 80.0 outright before the finals

 

Bet HERE

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