Luton v Millwall Betting: Pressure shift makes Hatters value

 

Jaymes Monte previews Saturday's FA Cup clash between Luton and Millwall at Kenilworth Road...

 

Luton v Millwall

Saturday 12:45, Live on ESPN

Although the two clubs have crossed paths 27 times since, memories of Luton versus Millwall are unfortunately entrenched in one of the most harrowing examples of 1980s  hooliganism. I'd like to say that football has come a long way since, but recent investigations have plunged Millwall's reputation back into the mire and confirms that  the sport is now fighting a different but equally disconcerting battle.

 

Match Odds

 

Both sides dispatched of Premier League opposition in the fourth round, with Luton beating Norwich at Carrow Road in one of the biggest FA Cup shocks of recent times,  and Milwall seeing off a struggling Aston Villa side at the New Den.

 

But since their respective cup triumphs, both have been poor. The Lions have lost all three of their subsequent games - against Barnsley, Hull and Blackpool - and  Luton have lost three and drawn one from four.

 

Having already beaten Wolves and Norwich in the competition Luton certainly won't hold any fears going into this one. Anything from here will be a bonus for the  Hatters, as has been the case since round three.

 

The same cannot be said of the visitors. Millwall find themselves in the curious situation of being on the brink of a last-16 spot but also facing a certain level of  humiliation should they not achieve the feat.

 

Despite the gulf between the sides in the pyramid of English football, this looks a much more evenly-matched tie than the odds suggest. The visitors look too short at  2.06 and the hosts too big at 4.1.

 

Neither side is showing the league form to suggest that they'll come into the game on the front foot, but form tends to go out of the window on occasions such as this  and home advantage is a real leveller for the Hatters. Lay Millwall to win at 2.06.

 

Over/Under 2.5 goals

 

Neither side have been particularly fluent in front of goal lately, and so a low-scoring affair should be anticipated. Millwall have scored just five in their last  seven games in all competitions, only once scoring more than one goal in a game during that period. Luton, meanwhile, have only scored two in their last six and have  drawn a blank four times during that period. Under 2.5 goals can be backed at an appealing 1.94, and even Under 1.5 goals is worth a nibble at odds of 3.8.

 

To Score

 

A glance at the bare statistics suggests that Luton's main threat might come from Stuart Fleetwood who has more league goals than any other Hatter this season.  However, he hasn't scored since late October and should be avoided at odds of 3.8 in the To Score market.

 

Andre Gray 3.3 and Scott Rendell 3.2 each have double figures this season and look much better bets in this market.

 

Andy Keogh 2.8 leads the market for the visitors, but he has only one goal in his last nine, while Rob Hulse, also at odds of 2.8 hasn't scored in his last nine appearances since late November.

 

Recommended Bets

Lay Millwall to win @ 2.06

Back Under 2.5 goals @ 1.94

 

Bet HERE

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