Liverpool to teach Young Boys a lesson, with or without Suarez

21Nov 2012

Europa Liga

Young Boys of Berne are still in the hunt for qualification after two wins over Udinese, but Kevin Hatchard expects improving Liverpool to overcome them at Anfield.

Liverpool vs Young Boys, Thu 20:05, Live on ITV4

Match Odds: Liverpool 1.42, Young Boys 9.2, the draw 5.0

As I suggested they would in this column, a weakened Liverpool side came unstuck at Anzhi Makhachkala last time out, losing 1-0 and dropping to second in the group. I expect Reds boss Brendan Rodgers to field a much stronger line-up this time, as he knows a victory could see his side qualify for the last 32 with a game to spare.

Liverpool fans have had cause to lament the club's home form in the past year, but the team's performances and results at Anfield are steadily improving, with the odd hiccup thrown in. The Reds saw off Wigan 3-0 in the Premier League on Saturday, and they beat a strong Anzhi side 1-0 in their most recent Europa League home match.

Overall Liverpool have lost just two of their last 12 matches, although they are still too reliant on Luis Suarez, who has scored 13 goals in 17 appearances. Suarez was selected for the Anzhi home game, and even though Rodgers faces an emotional return to Swansea on Sunday, I think he may call upon the Uruguayan again. If he does feature in the starting line-up, it's definitely worth backing him in the To Score market, probably at around evens.

Martin Rueda's Young Boys have every reason to be confident after they beat Udinese home and away, scoring three times in each game. However, before layers start getting too excited about the prospect of a shock result, we should consider that Young Boys' domestic form has collapsed. They have won just two of their last ten matches in the Swiss Super League, and they're a gigantic 15 points behind leaders Grasshoppers.

It's also worth considering that Liverpool beat Young Boys 5-3 in Berne, and that was without Suarez. Young Boys left massive gaps in midfield and defence, which Liverpool gleefully exploited. My final submission of evidence for the Liverpool win is that Opta tell us the Swiss side have lost 14 of their last 15 European away games.

I think Liverpool will overwhelm Young Boys, and I like the look of backing Liverpool/Liverpool in the HT/FT market at 2.04. I know that Young Boys put plenty of goals past Udinese, but I think they'll find chances harder to come by in this game. YBB have failed to score in two of their last three matches, and have drawn a blank in three of their five European away games this term. Liverpool have kept clean sheets in four of their last six home games, and I would back them to keep another at 2.14.

Best Bet:

Back Liverpool to keep a clean sheet at 2.14