Lions to restore some pride at Luton

15Feb 2013

FA Cup

The FA Cup is back again this weekend and while the ties look a bit one sided on paper, Paul Robinson thinks there is still some value to be had. Here are his Fixed Odds selections:

Luton v Millwall - ESPN @ 12:45

Back Millwall @ 1.95 (19/20)

Back Under 2.5 goals @ 1.85 (17/20)

Non-league Luton shocked Norwich at Carrow Road to get into the last 16 of the FA Cup but their form has taken a turn for the worse since and I don't expect lightening to strike twice.

Luton have had a rough few years; relegation, point deductions and financial troubles have seen them slip into the Conference after enjoying many seasons in the top few divisions. After missing out on promotion via the play-offs last term, Paul Buckle only has them in seventh place this time around, six points off fifth, but with two games in hand.

The Hatters were doing much better than that but after the Norwich result they have gone on to pick up just one point from a possible nine in the league and been knocked out of the FA Trophy. In all fairness to them, those defeats did come away from Kenilworth Road and they have won seven out of eight at home recently, but Millwall are a step up in class and I just can't see them raising their game once more.

Millwall have suffered too since knocking Aston Villa out in the last round and they've lost all three matches since. Kenny Jackett will not settle for performances like that and everyone involved with the club will want to avoid further embarrassment in what has been a bad week for the South Bermondsey outfit.

Away from The Den, The Lions haven't won in six but before that they'd gone unbeaten in seven and won three out of four, conceding just a single goal. Obviously they aren't in the same form as they were earlier in the campaign and their slide to 12th in the Championship illustrates that, but this is the weakest opposition they've faced for a good while and I don't expect them to pass up the opportunity of an FA Cup quarter-final appearance.

I can see Millwall keeping this as tight as possible and if they weather the early storm that Luton will no doubt provide, I can see the away side nicking a goal or two and demoralising the home players and crowd. If you don't like backing at odds-on away from home then under 2.5 at 1.85 (17/20) is a decent alternative.

MK Dons v Barnsley

Back Barnsley @ 2.9 (19/10)

Back Over 2.5 goals @ 2.0 (1/1)

It's League One against Championship in this tie and like the first match, I expect the higher rated team to emerge victorious, this time at a much bigger price though.

The MK Dons provided one of the many shocks of the last round when they stuffed QPR 4-2 at Loftus Road. The Dons led 4-0 at one point and they were in complete control from pretty much start to finish. A similar pattern is emerging though as their league form has also dipped since then and they've lost their last three matches.

Karl Robinson's side do still have a game in hand over their rivals but they are now 10 points adrift of the play-offs and that will be very disappointing for a club that finished fifth last year. The recent defeat at Yeovil can possibly be excused as Yeovil are in good form and they went down to 10 men for the last half hour, but the performance in the home drubbing to Bournemouth was sub-standard and they again went on to take a bit of a pasting from relegation threatened Oldham last time.

Barnsley have climbed to 22nd in the Championship - level on points with Wolves above them - thanks to picking up 13 points from a possible 15. They also overcame the high flying Hull away from home in the last round and it's all down to David Flitcroft. The former Bury player was promoted to number one following the sacking of Keith Hill and since his appointment The Tykes have played eight, won six, drawn one and lost one.

Away from Oakwell, Barnsley have won their last three, all at tough places to go; The KC Stadium, Bloomfield Road and The Riverside Stadium. They've netted six goals in that period and Jason Scotland has got off to a flyer at his new club with four in five appearances.

I can't believe the odds for this one as there is no way that MK should be favourites in my eyes. Barnsley are a new team under Flitcroft while The Dons have lost their stride. An away win at 2.9 (19/10) is massive value as is over 2.5 goals at 2.0 (1/1) given that MK's last four have all gone over as have six of Barnsley's last eight on the road.

Oldham v Everton - ITV1 @ 18:00

Back Everton/Everton @ 1.8 (4/5)

Back Everton to win 3-1 @ 10.0 (9/1)

Everton travel to Oldham looking to avoid the fate that their Merseyside rivals suffered in the last round and while the atmosphere will be electric again, I can't see anything other than a comfortable victory for the Premier League club.

A lot has happened to Oldham since their victory over Liverpool at the end of January; they have a new manager in the form of caretaker Tony Philliskirk and they've won a league game - their first since December 8th.

Aside from two magnificent victories in the FA Cup, Oldham have had a dismal campaign and they are in relegation scrap at the bottom of League One. Prior to the Liverpool match they had lost three straight games at Boundary Park and while most of their joy came from Matt Smith in that tie, he won't be able to bully Phil Jagielka like he did Martin Skrtel.

Everton have enjoyed much success under David Moyes but they haven't won any silverware. In what could possibly be his final season at Goodison, the Scot will want to cement his legacy with a trophy. After paying the price for playing a weakened side at Leeds in the Capital One Cup, Moyes has learned from his mistake and been putting out strong sides in this competition, even against lower ranked opposition.

The Toffees aren't really worth backing in the match odds market at a prohibitive price, but the 1.8 (4/5) in the HT/FT market for Everton to be leading at half time and at full time looks tempting as they will surely want to get ahead early to avoid Oldham building any kind of momentum. It might also be worth taking a chance on a 1-3 correct score at 10.0 (9/1) as Everton haven't kept many clean sheets this season and could be prone to a consolation strike.

Recommended Bets

Back Millwall @ 1.95 (19/20)

Back Under 2.5 goals in Luton v Millwall @ 1.85 (17/20)

Back Barnsley @ 2.9 (19/10)

Back Over 2.5 goals in MK Dons v Barnsley @ 2.0 (1/1)

Back Everton/Everton in the HT/FT market v Oldham @ 1.8 (4/5)

Back Everton to beat Oldham 3-1 @ 10.0 (9/1)

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