Ligue 1: There's no stopping PSG now

25Oct 2012

Carlo Ancelotti's league leaders should continue their march at the top of the table but Lille will suffer another difficult weekend, says James Eastham.

Lille v Valenciennes (11th v 5th) Sat, 16:00 BST

Lille's 1-0 home defeat to Bayern Munich in the Champions League on Tuesday night was just the latest miserable episode in a horrible season. Rudi Garcia's side have won just one of their last nine games in all competitions as they struggle to come to terms with life after Eden Hazard.

Neighbours Valenciennes go into this game in high spirits. They thrashed Lorient 6-1 last weekend (aided by two Lorient red cards) and will be confident they can get something in front of 50,000 fans at the Grand Stade. Valenciennes have the attacking quality to hurt Lille's shaky defence: wingers Thomas Dossevi and Gael Danic, playmaker Foued Kadir and centre-forward Anthony Le Tallec are all in fine form.

Lille are too short at 1.65 so you have the opportunity to back Valenciennes on the Asian Handicap at good odds.

Montpellier v Nice (16th v 15th) Sat, 19:00 BST

Montpellier are a shadow of the side that won the Ligue 1 title last season. They lie 16th, having taken just eight points from their opening nine games. Their home form is a particular concern - their league record at Stade de la Mosson is W0-D2-L2 and they have lost 2-1 to both Arsenal and Olympiakos in the Champions League.

Nice are playing better than their league position suggests. They struggle to keep clean sheets but the quality and variety of their attacking play is a joy to watch. And they are difficult to beat - since an opening-day 1-0 defeat to Ajaccio their only loss was v Reims (3-1) and over the course of 90 minutes they deserved a point.

Montpellier's 1.75 price is too short. I'd back the draw or support Nice on the Asian Handicap. Both teams to score also looks too big - both teams have found the net in 19 of 23 games involving these two sides in all competitions.

Nancy v PSG (20th v 1st) Sat, 19:00 BST

It's bottom against top at Stade Marcel Picot and impossible to make a case for Nancy stopping the PSG juggernaut. The hosts have lost six of their opening nine league games and scored just three times. Their defensive record of 15 goals conceded is the joint third-worst in the division and fans are getting on their backs. Confidence could not be lower as the title favourites arrive in town.

Since making a slow start to the season in August, PSG have improved. They have won comfortably against Ligue 1's smaller sides: 4-0 at Bastia, 2-0 v Sochaux and 1-0 v Reims. There's little downside to backing PSG -1.0 on the Asian Handicap as they are a strong selection to win, and you'll make a profit at good odds if they win by two goals or more.

Bastia v Bordeaux (12th v 6th) Sun, 16:00 BST

I can see both teams scoring here. Bastia are a decent attacking side - they have scored 12 goals in nine games - and should be able to find the net at least once because of fatigue in the Bordeaux ranks. The visitors travelled to Madeira for a Europa League game against Maritimo on Thursday night so are unlikely to be at their sharpest when these sides meet at Stade Furiani. Goalkeeper Cedric Carrasso is also an injury doubt.

Bastia have the division's worst defensive record, conceding an average of 2.22 goals a game. They have kept only one clean sheet in nine games. That was against Ajaccio last weekend (0-0) but they rode their luck, with Ajaccio hitting the post and firing wide when they should have scored.

Odds of 1.78 are worth taking.

Marseille v Lyon (2nd v 3rd) Sun, 20:00 BST

Marseille made the best start of any Ligue 1 side in 50 years by winning their opening six league games but since then, their form has faltered. They have picked up just one point from their last three league games as their early start to the season - Marseille's first competitive game was a Europa League qualifier on August 2 - has caught up with them. Thursday night's trip to Borussia Monchengladbach and the absence of eight-goal top scorer Andre-Pierre Gignac will do little to help their cause.

Lyon are just one place and one point behind Marseille in the standings. Their only defeat in 13 games in all competition was v Bordeaux (0-2) and came against the run of play.

The visitors are good enough to get a point, so I'd back the draw (3.25) or support Lyon on the Asian Handicap.

Best Bet:

PSG -1.0 Asian Handicap at Nancy @ 1.95

Other Recommended Bets:

Lyon +0&+0.5 Asian Handicap at Marseille @ 2.04

Valenciennes +1.0 Asian Handicap at Lille @ 1.79

Bastia v Bordeaux Both Teams to Score @ 1.78

Montpellier v Nice Both Teams to Score @ 2.02

Nice +0.5&+1.0 Asian Handicap at Montpellier @ 1.96

(Source: Betfair)