Lee Dixon: Spurs to come up short at Stamford Bridge once again

 

Tottenham are in decent form but so are their London rivals in the top four battle and a win at Stamford Bridge looks a must if Andre Villas-Boas' team are to play  Champions League football next season. But, says Lee Dixon, the stats are against the north London outfit...

 

It looks like do-or-die time in the top four battle for Tottenham - the only problem is they must get three points at one of their traditional graveyards if they're to  achieve a cherished Champions League finish.

 

The Opta stats tell you all need to know about Spurs' woeful record at Chelsea: they haven't won a Premier League match at Stamford Bridge in 20 visits, the longest  such run in the division.

 

And it gets worse for Andre Villas-Boas ahead of his return to SW6. Chelsea have won their last six home games and have just beaten the champions at Old Trafford. Like  many I expected the sheer weight of Chelsea's fixture list to take its toll but Rafa Benitez just keeps tweaking the team for each game and he's getting the rewards.  The Spaniard is writing an impressive chapter into his CV with this mini season at Stamford Bridge.

 

A draw would be probably be good enough for Chelsea as it would keep Spurs three points off with just two games to play and a massive goal difference as extra ballast  between west and north London.

 

But I think the Blues will be going for Tottenham's jugular on Wednesday night. We always aimed to get the job done as early as possible back when I was playing, and a  win would as good as guarantee Champions League for Chelsea next season. Even better for Blues fans it would deal a nasty blow to their bitter rivals' European hopes,  while allowing them to focus on the Europa League final.

 

You can never rule out an outfit of Spurs' quality of course, and I can understand why Betfair customers would back them at 4.2. Gareth Bale is a phenomenal player, and undoubtedly their most eye-catching performer, but they are more than a one-man team and are capable of getting a result against any side. Witness the defeats of both Manchester clubs this season.

 

At the prices they are not a bet for me, however. The Betfair layers are offering nearly evens about a Chelsea side that has never lost at home to Spurs in 20 Premier  League years, and last tasted defeat at the Bridge in the competition when QPR - of all teams - paid a visit on January 2 of this year. That seems like a bizarre  anomaly and the 1.96 available is a very tempting price, but I will play bigger odds with a back of draw/Chelsea in the half-time/full-time market at 5.8.

 

I'm expecting a tight and cagey game and I can just see Chelsea edging it late on, similar to what they did to United at Old Trafford last Sunday. Or what Tottenham  did to Southampton one day earlier for that matter.

 

Under 2.5 goals at odds-against will be my second selection as both teams possess good defences.  Chelsea have really hit a good vein of form at the back, keeping  three clean sheets in the last four games and I think Spurs will do very well to get even one goal past Petr Cech.

 

It's tough on Tottenham that what has been a fine season looks like boiling down to one game but I can't back them to win at the Bridge when stats and form point so  strongly to another win for the Chelsea juggernaut.

 

Recommended Bets

Back draw/Chelsea in halftime/fulltime market @ 5.8

Back Under 2.5 goals @ 2.24

 

Bet HERE

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