League Two: Southend to beat the Bantams

14Dec 2012

Ian Lamont says Paul Sturrock's in-form Shrimpers could find Bradford's cup heroics leave them drained

Southend 2.22 Bradford 3.4 Draw 3.45

After Bradford's brilliant League Cup quarter-final victory over Arsenal, my instinct is to oppose Phil Parkinson's heroes. It is great to note from City's director of operations that the cup run has secured the club's long-term financial future and I think it entirely probable they will gain a long overdue promotion. However, big cup wins take it out of players, physically and emotionally. The Bantams have won their last nine penalty shoot-outs, a record. But after each of this season's three successes they have failed to win the next game, losing twice. Yes, they have decent league form of 11 points from the last six games, but their away form is average. Another negative is being reinstated into the FA Cup, because next Tuesday's replay will prey on their minds and drain them further.

Southend, meanwhile, who are just behind fourth-placed Bradford in sixth, are unbeaten in seven games and on a better scoring run than a miserly 12 goals at home suggests (11 league goals in three games before last weekend's 0-0 draw at Fleetwood). Paul Sturrock's men won their own penalty shootout, against Bury, in their FA Cup replay on Tuesday, but it somehow failed to gain the same fame as ejecting Arsene Wenger from a competition. Top scorer Britt Asombalonga, made unavailable for the cup by Watford, returns now, alongside similarly denied Tamika Mkandawire, of Millwall, making the Shrimpers fresher perhaps.

Back Southend @ 2.22

Dagenham 1.96 Barnet 4.1 Draw 3.65

Does it sound crazy to consider Dagenham's price too short? That entirely rests on whether you think Barnet's revival under the influence of Dutch master Edgar Davids has run out of steam. The Bees have won just three times in the nine games he has featured in. The stunning 4-0 win he orchestrated against Northampton on a Friday in mid-October seems a distant memory. Scoring twice in a game has only been achieved once since, when young Jake Hyde netted two against Oxford and Barnet have not won in five games.

Krystian Pearce might have impressed on loan from Notts County. But his last game before his loan is up will be a tough one against Sam Williams, who has four goals in Dagenham's run of four wins from six games. John Still's men have just three defeats in 14 games. Although they have only scored once in each of the last three games, they have won two, demonstrating they can win tight games, even if struggling sides like Bristol Rovers, where they won 1-0 last weekend, put up a fight.

Back Dagenham @ 1.96

Chesterfield 2.06 Burton 3.95 Draw 3.5

Chesterfield are one team who justify short price this weekend and perhaps layers are even being generous. They have won their last four league games, the division's best running according to Opta, including defeating Port Vale away last weekend. They seem to be making up for lost time as new boss Paul Cook's nine-game era gathers pace. Burton scored their first league goal for three games in beating Accrington 1-0 at home last Sunday. They usually score well at the Pirelli, but away from home they have a the division's worst record of six. Marc Richards and Jack Lester will relish the chance to propel the Spireites into the top seven.

Back Chesterfield @ 2.06

Accrington 2.26 Wycombe 3.35 Draw 3.35

Rather than sleepwalk into four short-price tips, I have gone looking for a longer-price chance bet. Plymouth are a possible at Exeter, Opta pointing out they have won two of their last three visits against a side who only have 11 home points. But I have plumped for Wycombe, who enjoy visiting Stanley, say Opta, having one two and drawn the other of the last three trips there. Gareth Ainsworth's men might have let slip a winning position against Morecambe, but had Joel Grant sent off early. Even without him now, Wycombe retain scoring threats in Dean Morgan and Matt McClure. Wanderers are four unbeaten while their hosts are winless in four league and cup games and seem to have an over reliance on Jamies Beattie. The Chairboys' upward curve makes their price a large one. Lay the hosts if you are cautious, but I'm chancing the away win.

Back Wycombe @ 3.35