League Two: Sheridon's Argyle reign to start with victory

11Jan 2013

Ian Lamont goes value 'shopping' in the January sales and comes up with some long shots, a victory for Plymouth under their new boss and states his opposition to Bradford.

Plymouth 2.26 Morecambe 3.4 Draw 3.35

After a great couple of weeks of value everywhere, there are now a string of unrealistic odds-on home prices. Aldershot bucked a season-long poor home record to beat Rotherham in the FA Cup and are now (without suspended Danny Hylton) horrendously short to beat Accrington at 2.0. And 2.1 about Gillingham to beat Port Vale in a first v second clash? It's not for me. At least the price on Plymouth is more realistic, 2.26 offering some sort of value - and hunting for good value is the theme of this week's column. That price has shortened from 2.4 earlier in the week.

Plymouth are the eighth League Two club to appoint a permanent new manager since the season kicked off - and John Sheridon could well be the first of those to win his opening match. Unlucky to be jettisoned from Chesterfield after three games this season (he had gained promotion previously - there's there's gratitude!), his track record makes him an excellent, experienced replacement for rookie Carl Fletcher. Gary Owers' internal promotion is also welcome because if he can do good work with unfashionable clubs such as Bath City and Forest Green, what can he do with the Devon club? Plymouth were on a hiding to nothing last week at Port Vale. Now they have the perfect chance for a fresh start against Morecambe, who have picked up just two points in their past seven away games. Expect Argyle to produce what has become a traditional low-scoring home affair. Add under 2.5 goals to the home win.

Back Plymouth @ 2.26

Back under 2.5 goals @ 1.84

Bradford 1.96 Oxford 4.1 Draw 3.65

Anyone looking to lay among the many short prices should consider Bradford. Having put one foot in the League Cup final, cup action simply has to take its toll, mentally and physically. Arguably it has already. Just weeks ago, Phil Parkinson's side were a handily placed third, but have slipped outside the top seven after one win in five games and four in 12. At home, three small margin wins were followed by defeat to Rochdale. Meanwhile Oxford are on a roll. Four wins in an unbeaten seven games is, according to Opta, the longest current unbeaten run in the division. It has given Chris Wilder's men renewed hope, even if James Constable's four-match ban means they are without a striker who had rediscovered his scoring touch and appeared to have formed a fruitful alliance with Peter Leven. No matter, the U's have snapped up seasoned campaigner Justin Richards from Burton and Gillingham midfielder Lewis Montrose. The visitors pasted three past the varying qualities of AFC Wimbledon and Exeter on their last two away trips and are certainly overpriced at 4.0. Maybe Bradford are under-priced as layers have lost money on their cup successes. They can recoup some losses.

Lay Bradford @ anything under 2.0

Fleetwood 1.74 Bristol Rovers 5.7 Draw 4.0

Long-shot backers can consider Oxford, but must certainly have Bristol at 5.7. Their last away win was in September, but they have a new broom which, after a draw and a win, was only stopped by Gillingham's juggernaut. Mark McChrystal, who made his debut in defence, believes the club are just one or two players short of being capable of staying up. Ward's priority remains a striker, even after capturing John Hitchcock, 20, from QPR. It will be a tough ask at Highbury. Opta point out that Rovers, who drew 0-0 in the reverse fixture, have gone 18 games without a clean sheet. Graham Alexander has only one defeat in six matches, but there is a chink of light for Rovers in that four were draws. There is much to be said for laying the hosts, but I'm going the whole hog, because struggling sides start to pick up in January.

Back Bristol Rovers at 5.7

Exeter 2.84 Southend 2.72 Draw 3.45

What have AFC Wimbledon, Wycombe and Burton got in common? They are the only three teams Exeter have beaten at home (in a poor return at St James' Park of 13 points from 13 games). Yet the Grecians have the division's second best away record. If you can solve that conundrum, boss Paul Tisdale would love to hear from you. Exeter have a presentable chance to follow up two straight away wins, as visitors Southend have lost twice on the bounce after a fantastic league run and have Tuesday's FA Cup replay at Brentford to distract them. Southend have failed to score in three of the last four games with Exeter, reveal Opta.

Back Exeter @ 2.84