League Two: Rovers can win no-holds-barred fixture

1Feb 2013

Betfair

The relegation clash between Bristol Rovers and Barnet on Friday is not for the nervous, says Ian Lamont, who reckons that means goals galore. Other short-priced home teams could struggle on Saturday.

Bristol Rovers 2.2 Barnet 3.5 Draw 3.5, Friday February 1, kick-off 19.45

Edgar Davids' absence for Barnet last week might, in part, explain defeat at Burton, but this fixture looks even tougher with or without the guidance of the Dutch master. While I like to look for the upset in 'fright night' Friday action, believing shock results often occur, I think Bristol Rovers are clearly in better form under new boss John Ward, whose influx of six new faces appears to have done the trick. Unfortunately, the superb and unexpectedly comprehensive nature of the victory at Rotherham last weekend means that his side are not as generously priced as recent weeks, as layers catch on to their abilities. All things considered, however, there has to be value still in the price. If they can beat a team with promotion aspirations, they should have no trouble with fellow relegation rival right? Not quite. Barnet have also taken advantage of out-of-form top teams on their own turf (the win at Gillingham for example).

Rovers beat Rotherham 3-0 while Barnet won 2-0. That would be a spurious reason to give the hosts the edge, but in all seriousness they have the momentum. Ward believes he has brought in sufficient players with the right pedigree to pull Rovers clear and even the huge frame of Clayton McDonald has had to sit on the bench because of the form of centre-backs already in place. John-Joe O'Toole, in midfield, has already become a fans' favourite. Barnet's Ricky Holmes ought to be inspired by that thought to find his own best form on the wing. There is certainly all to play for at the Memorial Stadium. Expect a full-throttle battle with plenty of goals as both teams go for the jugular in a game, suitably for 'Fright night', that will surely not be for the faint hearted or football purists. Over 3.5 goals is a possibility at 3.6 to add to the home win.

Back Bristol Rovers @ 2.2

Back over 3.5 goals @ 3.6

Exeter 2. 1 Aldershot 3.85 Draw 3.55 Saturday, 15:00

Clearly Paul Tisdale has plenty more thoughts - perhaps reserved for his team - than he was prepared to give away after a bemusing defeat at home to Torquay on Monday. But quite what he was thinking by using Alan Gow, effective as a link from midfield to the forward(s), up front on his own when he had Jamie Cureton (who has 16 goals) available was beyond the comprehension of many supporters. The defeat cost Exeter the chance to press for third place in the tightest of races. Seven teams, from third to ninth, are separated by just three points. It also meant Torquay managed to claim a first win in seven games. Exeter looked like they had turned the corner with their home performances by beating Southend. But now it just looks like a rare against-the-trend win against a team who were out of form. All that does not bode well for the visit from Aldershot Town, who need the points more urgently, as they lie just above the bottom two. Within minutes of losing in the FA Cup at Middlesbrough, boss Dean Holdsworth had, publicly, challenged them to kick themselves up the table. They are beginning to look capable, with Sonny Bradley and Troy Brown seeming a decent centre-back partnership. Now they need Dani Lopez to follow Danny Hylton's lead of being able to score more than once per game if they are to repay their manager's faith. Lopez, Opta point out, has failed to score in his last four away games for the club, but has netted in four from five at home. There is certainly room for optimism in this fixture, even if their last visit to Devon resulted in a 3-0 half-time lead and a 4-3 defeat to Torquay. With that bizarre result in mind, a rare foray into the half-time/full-time market is in order, Aldershot/draw the prediction, as well as the home side lay.

Lay Exeter @ 2.1

Back Half-time/Full-time Aldershot/Draw @ 18.5

AFC Wimbledon 2.84 Burton 2.52 draw 3.55

While Gary Rowett's Brewers have League Two's best home form, they have failed to win away in the league since November, eight attempts ago at Plymouth. If you combined their home form with Exeter's away, you would have one formidable force! Jacques Maghoma hopes Tuesday's 1-1 draw at Oxford will act as a catalyst. But at this stage of the season things are rarely that easy. Teams hoping to challenge face a struggle to keep up momentum (see Gillingham) and increasingly face teams desperate to claw away from the drop zone. Cue AFC Wimbledon. The Wombles took a 2-0 lead against Port Vale and were pegged back, so it is possible. But Burton, clearly, are not good at clawing back deficits on their travels. New boy Harry Pell has experience of relegation scraps and won't want to repeat relegation with Hereford last season while Jack Midson has rediscovered his scoring touch, perhaps inspired by Paul McCallum, who has extended his loan from West Ham. Wimbledon have a league-low 10 points at home, Opta point out, and that needs to improve.

Back AFC Wimbledon @ 2.84

Rotherham 2.08 Northampton 3.65 Draw 3.65

Rotherham's poor home run (one win in five) was compounded when centre-back Claude Davis was sent off on his debut last weekend, having been brought in because of a centre-back crisis. The pre-season title favourites languish in ninth, which is not beyond rescue just three points behind third. However, Northampton have been in terrific form of late, Tuesday's defeat at Gillingham seeming like a rarity. In reality their away form is not the best, but the confidence gained from five wins out of seven will be in contrast to their hosts. Several teams with far fewer credentials have beaten the Millers this season. The cautious will lay the hosts but the away win is great value, as the Cobblers are unbeaten in five games against Rotherham emphasise Opta, albeit four being score draws.

Back Northampton @ 3.65