League Two Midweek Betting: Rotherham can fend off Wanderers

12Mar 2013

Betfair

Ian Lamont believes the Millers will not want to upset Steve Evans with a second straight defeat, and while not quite brave enough to cheer AFC Wimbledon to another big priced away our man win does recommended laying their opponents...

Wycombe 3.0 v Rotherham 2.5; The Draw 3.5

Rotherham's squad know that back-to-back defeats at this stage of the season will really bring out the angry bear in Steve Evans. Strangely, the Millers seem to slip up more in their new home - defeat to Dagenham being further evidence - than away.

Last Tuesday they smashed in-form Oxford 4-0 at the Kassam. So this week they should be able to pick off a Wycombe side who have talent but who have lost four in six, with recent scorelines suggesting that if they gain points it is by narrow margins. Wycombe have scored five and conceded 11 in six games, while Rotherham's haul is pretty much the reverse.

Evans stuck with the same team for the third game running but suffered a late defeat on Saturday and of course will now have centre-back Kari Arnason suspended for two games after his dismissal. Crucially, Evans has the experience of hauling a team - Crawley - back into the automatic promotion slots at the end of last season, before leaving with a few weeks to go. Port Vale's poor run means more than one automatic promotion slot is up for grabs, providing the Millers with even stronger incentive.

The visitors' attacking forces of Alex Revell, Daniel Nardiello and Kayode Odejayi should put the hosts to the sword.

Recommended Bet:

Back Rotherham @ 2.5

Bristol Rovers 2.9 v Port Vale 2.6; The Draw 3.55

Port Vale seem to have imploded, leading to some headlines that Micky Adams' job was on the line. It came from his own quote that suggested, if they don't win the promotion that has looked on the cards most of the season, the Valiants would be looking for a new manager. He admitted he had made the wrong selections as the Vale Park natives became restless during defeat to Southend on Saturday.

Somehow he has to shake the Valiants out of a malaise which has seen they win just once (at out-of-sorts Torquay) in seven games, scoring just three goals, despite a clearly talented squad that, as Opta point out, are the league's highest scorers with 67 goals.

Bristol Rovers have won three of their last four games at the Memorial Stadium, with three clean sheets, including defeating promotion chasers Burton and Exeter in the last fortnight.

I don't expect Vale's poor run to last much longer, but even without facing Rovers' injured winger Joe Ansinyah this could just be another game without a win, hence a lay at a risky big price.

Recommended Bet:

Lay Port Vale @ 2.6

Southend 1.84 v AFC Wimbledon 5.0; The Draw 3.75

Graham Coughlan, who stood in for ill Shrimpers boss Paul Sturrock, believes what happens next is the most important aspect of victory over Port Vale.

He joked he might just retire after one match and one win "in charge" but he might just be right to do so. Southend's inconsistency is the reason they are trying to bridge the considerable gap from eighth to seventh place.

Three home games now in succession would give natural hope of improving their lot. However, they are all against teams near the bottom, starting with AFC Wimbledon, who have battled their way to 11 points from six games. The attitude of Neil Ardley that he wanted five wins indicates he will go for broke in each game.

They earned the first win having been pegged back twice against York, who had new manager Nigel Worthington to impress. Harry Pell epitomised Hereford's battling when they were in League Two and has two goals in three games, pointers that indicate the visitors could gain reward here. The recruitment of Kelly Youga, the former Charlton defender, blosters them and their chances.

Southend have enough form to suggest the Dons may not repeat their big-priced victory for me at Dagenham the other week, so caution indicates a home lay.

Recommended Bet:

Lay Southend @ 1.84

Aldershot 2.64 v Burton 2.96; The Draw 3.4

The Brewers have won once on the road in 10 attempts - a 4-0 demolition of a Fleetwood side at their lowest ebb. That has not sprung an expected turnaround in away form, although it did help to propel them to the top of the six-game table.

Just six goals and three points from the other nine away games and Aldershot's recent run that includes six draws from 11 games indicate a tight, low-scoring affair.

Even if Danny Hylton does not return from last week's freak training injury, Andy Scott will not want to lose his unbeaten record - and Aldershot, Opta say, are having their best run of the season with six unbeaten matches.

Scott also knows that keeper Jamie Young can handle it if, like against Bradford, he is faced with a barrage of attacks. Backing under 2.5 goals seems like the best course of action.

Recommended Bet:

Back under 2.5 goals @ 1.8