League Two Midweek Betting: Oppose Southend at home again

19Mar 2013

Betfair

Southend's home form in 2013 has been poor, meaning Ian Lamont is prepared to lay them again, as well as chancing Torquay to produce a first victory for Alan Knill after a long winless run...

Southend 1.81 v Plymouth 5.0; The draw 3.85

Southend have induced tears in anyone backing them at home in 2013. Paul Sturrock has blamed a string of injuries to key players at different times for the team struggling to maintain a play-off push. James Cresswell sat out Saturday.

They are not out of the play-off reckoning totally yet, but three wins from 10 games does not bode well. The manager also justified Paul Bentley's inclusion on Saturday by saying he had changed virtually every other position on the field, so why not goalkeeper?

So he must take his share of the blame - as does a Johnstone's Paint Trophy run that concludes at Wembley on April 7 - for a run of one win in seven at Roots Hall this calendar year - and that against Oxford who were on a bad run. They allowed Cheltenham and Northampton to snap up rare away victories, while also losing to strugglers Barnet and AFC Wimbledon. Saturday's 1-1 draw was against improving Torquay.

Shrimpers fans will be nervous of Plymouth, whose boss John Sheridan says he expects even more from Jason Banton, 21, despite the Crystal Palace loanee notching five goals in nine games. Four of those goals have come away, two at Aldershot in Plymouth's last away win four trips ago.

Sheridan has inferred his side are more used to a relegation scrap than winning and it sounds like he wants a clearout in the summer. Having won Chesterfield promotion, he could be the right manager to make this fallen giant a force next season - if they stay in League Two. Owner James Brent certainly has big plans inside and outside the club and non-league football is not what such big visions merit or sustain.

There is certainly no way of justifying 1.81 on a home win, both sides having similar 10-game points hauls. Plymouth, one of five teams sharing bottom spot on 40 points, are the more desperate.

It becomes a choice of lay the hosts, covering the draw, or be tempted by a big away price. As Plymouth have strung together back-to-back wins just once this season (and the sides have drawn their last two against each other), it would be best to repeat last week's caution and lay Southend (that time against winners AFC Wimbledon).

Recommended Bet:

Lay Southend @ 1.81

Torquay 2.74, v Chesterfield 2.82; The Draw 3.4

Just how far have Torquay improved and can they win? Temporary boss Alan Knill believes their draw at Southend was their best performance in his six games, but after three draws he still awaits his maiden victory in charge - and Torquay are still winless in 11 matches.

Rene Howe hogged headlines after scoring in a club record seven straight games up until mid-October, and Knill says he has refound his "unplayable" touch, while Notts County's on-loan midfielder Joss Ladabie has scored in the last two games, having played three times.

A great addition, then, but Knill still insists he is looking for one more loan player, making seven when only six can be in a match-day squad. Ruthlessness is needed at the foot of the table.

Chesterfield, by all accounts, were fortunate to h0ld on to an early Marc Richards strike to win at in-form Oxford and would appear beatable if the Gulls can keep a rare clean sheet (1 in 11).

What seems certain is a tight game. The last 10 Spireities games have finished with under 2.5 goals - available at 1.73 - (six from 10 for Torquay) and seven of Chesterfield's 10 were under 1.5. A price of 3.1 reflects the lack of chances of that occurring.

After two confidence-boosting away draws, the Gulls might just prevail at home, especially if they score first. Opta say Chesterfield have won no points from losing positions in away games this season.

Recommended Bets:

Back Torquay @ 2.74

Back Under 2.5 goals @ 1.73

Accrington 2.7, v AFC Wimbledon 2.84; The draw 3.45

With James Beattie talking of "toughening up" Accrington mentally while he is there as coach and Jack Midson saying AFC Wimbledon are learning to do the nitty gritty and win ugly, nobody should expect a classic at Livingstone Road.

The Dons' first task is to stop Lee Molyneux. Opta say he is the first defender in all four English divisions to score a hat-trick. His stat of five goals in the last five games masks the fact he - and Stanley - have only scored in two of them.

By contrast, the Dons have scored in each of the last eight and have been more consistent with five wins and one defeat in that time, as opposed to two wins in eight (12 games in total) for the hosts.

The visitors, after a clean sheet and scrappy 1-0 win at Aldershot, might just sneak a third win in a row for the first time this season as they bid for a third away win from four and, as Opta point out, a first win over Accrington.

Recommended Bet:

Back AFC Wimbledon @ 2.84