League Two Midweek: Back brave hearts of Aldershot

9Apr 2013

Betfair

Andy Scott needs to turn into a rally-crying historical figure to inspire the Shots if they are to stay up. Ian Lamont believes they can pull off a much-needed win at Port Vale, whose 7-1 victims last Friday, Burton, are also to be opposed...

Port Vale 1.77 v Aldershot 5.5; The draw 3.9

My tip a couple of weeks ago, thwarted by snow, was a lay on the Valiants, with 0-0 a possible outcome. That would have suited the Shots then. But not now.

Their need is more urgent. To stay up, new boss Andy Scott must turn into Rob Roy, Spartacus and lots of other historical rallying figures all rolled in to one. Referring to two defeats in eight games doesn't cut it, because half of them were draws, which will no longer do.

A draw, however, might be considered weathering an Opta stats storm against a side who won 7-1 last Friday, over Burton.

Opta gleefully reveal that The Valiants have won their last five against the Shots, with a goal ratio of 12-3. Do you want another dagger or two? Tom Pope is the division's top scorer with 30 this season - and Aldershot have only gained three points from losing positions this season, a league low.

Once the body blows from Opta have been absorbed - and add in the absence of injured Aaron Morris - it should be put forward that one of those claw backs came at Rochdale in their last away game, while six of Aldershot's last seven away games have resulted in draws (three 1-1, three 0-0).

Defeating out-of-form Oxford in their last game on Bank Holiday Monday and scoring three - as many as in their previous four games put together - could not have been more timely. They led in the other two 1-1 away draws and in recent months have also beaten Chesterfield and Barnet 1-0. A correct score of 0-1 is 15.0.

Aldershot have to hope Micky Adams' men are over confident and think they are nearly over the promotion line. Be sure that defensive duties will have been driven into the Shots while on loan Paul McCallum looks capable of scoring at any moment.

Aldershot fought hard over 16 years to regain a Football League place for the town. They simply must win, hence a Braveheart, eyeballs out bet on the away team at a big price, rather than the cautious lay.

Bradford 1.84 v Bristol Rovers 5.0; The draw 3.75

My cheeky turn-of-the-year treble on Crystal Palace, Bournemouth and Bradford to be promoted had long since been written off, after the Bantams made a surprising run to the League Cup final, stunting league form.

The Bantams had risen to fourth in the autumn. Now, bridging what was an eight-point gap to seventh a few weeks ago (now two) looks feasible. To do it, they must put pretenders Bristol Rovers, the form team of 2013 and over 10 games, in their place.

Chesterfield and Northampton have proved stumbling blocks for John Ward's men on their travels, which sows enough doubt in their away form to put a 13-point five-game run to one side, as does Bradford's 10 points from the last four games and one defeat in ten since the cup final.

Opta reveal that Bradford have beaten Bristol Rovers just once in their last nine meetings, but that the Bantams have lost three points from winning positions at home this season; a joint-league low with Gillingham. Nahki Wells, after 10 games without scoring, has hit the net again and if either of these sides are to hit the top seven it will be Bradford, with games in hand. Another tight victory should ensue.

Recommended bet:

Back Bradford @ 1.84

Burton 2.06 v Wycombe 3.95; The draw 3.7

Having pondered backing Wycombe to win at Oxford, doing so now could be a case of horse bolted.

That 7-1 whipping at Port Vale - a biggest defeat in 50 years - threatens to shake the confidence of the Brewers. They have now just four points from two games - and lost their last home outing to Chesterfield.

Wycombe, meanwhile, have been set a target to finish in the top half by Gareth Ainsworth while defender Charles Dunne says he senses something big at the club is about to happen.

The last time the Chairboys won three away in a row was 2010, say Opta, and while that tempts Burton must react, but laying them seems reasonable at the price.

Recommended bet:

Lay Burton @ 2.04

Wednesday

Rochdale 2.34 v Southend 3.2; The Draw 3.5

Stick or twist? Is Rochdale's winning roll sufficient to risk backing them, or do Southend under new boss Phil Brown still believe they can reach the top seven?

The answer probably lies in the middle, because Rochdale are not quite safe from relegation, but might take their foot off the pedal after two straight wins - both away - for the first time since September - both away. Their best unbeaten sequence is five, achieved twice. They could make it a hat-trick here.

The last two home games were hard-fought draws, George Donnelly scoring in each 1-1 draw as well as Saturday's 3-0 drubbing of Fleetwood. Opta point out he has five in seven games.

Southend suffered from cup disease - league form dipping. However, before Sunday's Wembley distraction they achieved draws with Fleetwood (giving Rochdale the upper hand in one sense) and at Bradford.

But the Shrimpers chairman warned, when sacking Paul Sturrock, that the new manager needed time before the end of the season to assess players, which means more than ever they are playing for their futures: Incentive to perform well, then, and battle to a draw. They have also clawed 21 points from losing positions, reveal Opta.

Recommended bet:

Back the draw at 3.5