League Two: Cobblers to bounce for Boothroyd

4Jan 2013

Ian Lamont says Northampton can squeeze past Fleetwood and says don't expect the shocks to be exclusive to the FA Cup on third round day - Gillingham might well come unstuck at resurgent Bristol Rovers.

Northampton 2.44 Fleetwood 3.15 Draw 3.45

Whichever way you look this weekend in League Two there is risk taking to be done. On the one hand Northampton look an inviting priced, having won six and lost two in 10 games, as our friends at Opta points out. But the statistical gurus then add that Fleetwood are unbeaten in five, with three clean sheets in a row. What is the key pointer? Perhaps that the Cobblers have scored in each of those 10 games. While Fleetwood have a pretty good away record - conceding the joint fewest goals (9) alongside table topping Gillingham - their victory at temporary leaders Port Vale on New Year's Day (one of many topsy turvy football results) was their first actual triumph on the road in six attempts.

Graham Alexander has yet to be beaten in his managerial stint with the Cod Army, but this could be the first defeat. Aidy Boothroyd felt his side's latest win - 3-1 at home over Dagenham - was "scrappy at best" but if Ben Tozer can tease out a few more deliveries maybe Ade Akinfenwa can add to his 13 goals for the season and sneak a victory. Back under 2.5 goals as well.

Back Northampton @ 2.44

Back Under 2.5 goals @ 1.97

Bristol Rovers 3.8 Gillingham 2.0 Draw 3.9

Bristol Rovers were great last January, which was the last time they notched back-to-back victories, something they will be aiming for against Gillingham as they start the battle to avoid relegation. This tip comes with a health warning, because I am going to suggest it is achievable. Such things are possible in sport, especially football. In recent weeks Hartlepool (bottom) beat Sheffield United (top) in League One and QPR (bottom) beat high-flying Chelsea. Rovers have a parallel with QPR - a new manager. In this case, John Ward's work with them seems to have inspired them, as they have followed up a draw at Aldershot with victory over Plymouth, which included three debutants signed on the day. There will be more recruits to add to the new formation and tactics. Ward wants a physically strong striker and is assessing Guy Madjo, released from Aldershot, and it is a shame Cian Bolger - outstanding in defence against Argyle - appears not to be returning on loan from Leicester.

How far could Gillingham buckle and is it worth laying them to cover the draw instead of backing Bristol? They lost to Barnet on Boxing Day - add that to the major upsets list above - and to inconsistent Exeter, while drawing with out-of-form Fleetwood and Accrington and struggling Plymouth. Strangely, they have beaten top sides Rotherham and Southend. It is a tall order and a long-shot, but I am determined to back the full upset of a home win. It is FA Cup day afterall and shocks are by no means restricted to cup action. Cautious punters are forgiven for laying the visitors at even money.

Back Bristol Rovers @ 3.8

Wycombe 2.9 Chesterfield 2.7 Draw 3.4

Both sides will be looking for redemption after "head in hands" inducing defeats on New Year's Day. As Opta point out, Wycombe have won five and lost two of their last eight, with both defeats in the last three games. So have the wheels come off the recovery? They will certainly feel they could do better after Joel Grant missed a penalty before a 17-year-old defender, Kortney Hause, netted an own goal to cost them a 1-0 defeat to Exeter. Paul Cook, meanwhile, will be wondering how his Chesterfield side hit the woodwork twice and missed other chances to hand his old side Accrington a first win in eight games. The Spireites have lost three of their last five away games and one just once in five games. The home win price seems too big.

Back Wycombe @ 2.9

Port Vale 1.84 Plymouth 4.7 Draw 3.95

The Valiants might be second in League Two, but their home record is poor. They might have a plus 11 goals average there, but only five wins should tell you why they remain a distant second favourites for the title at 5.8. Despite the early-season view from Plymouth owner James Brent that he did not expect instant success, he was clearly worried enough to part company with boss Carl Fletcher. Sensibly, therefore, he has done so at the start of the transfer window, not the end. Before Argyle regroup and appoint a new boss, Tom Pope and Louis Dodd should take advantage by adding to their recent goal tally for the hosts.

Back Port Vale @ 1.84