League Two Betting: Stick with Torquay rock

22Mar 2013

Betfair

League Two's line up is like a sweet shop full of tempters this weekend, says Ian Lamont. Here he tries to avoid the sour tasters to pick some treats, starting at Plainmoor after tipping the Gulls' first win in 12 games in midweek...

Torquay United 2.4, v York City 3.35; The Draw 3.4

This weekend's League Two sweetie shop is full of tempters, but experience in my local tells me the most fantastic looking one can be an unpalatably sour gobstopper.

Some examples to avoid: Northampton at 2.1 (eight straight home wins) host 4.0 Oxford (three away wins running). Gillingham (unstable at home) are a no-no at 1.6 to beat Accrington, inspired by Francis Jeffers plus a whopping and tempting 6.4. Rotherham are as short as 2.1 to beat away masters Exeter, who are 3.6. No. To conclude: you'd need a real sugar rush to back all three away wins, although you'd be in profit if one of three won.

So, where does the sane but tasty treat lie? At Plainmoor. Torquay have been improving, beaten just once in five but vitally have given Alan Knill his first win, as tipped on Tuesday. The two previous away draws set up the victory, the temporary boss believes.

York have not - yet - shown a revival of fortunes until Nigel Worthington, scoring in just one of his three games and still winless, in 14 now. Richard Cresswell's arrival for a month on loan might be romantic, back with the Minstermen where he began, and they will surely want to make use of his player/coach status at parent club Sheffield United, but ideas take time to filtrate.

Torquay, point out Opta, have just two clean sheets at home but, four unbeaten against York, can definitely outscore the visitors now that Rene Howe has rediscovered his goal boots with two strikes in three games, for which Notts County loanee Joss Ladabie (three in three) seems to have been the catalyst.

Chesterfield 1.9, v Plymouth 4.6; The Draw 3.65

Having talked myself out of being brave enough to back Plymouth outright in midweek, I can at least celebrate laying their odds-on opponents.

It really would be tempting fate to back Plymouth outright now, despite the urge. At the price, layers apparently are astonished that they are winning at all. The Pilgrims have plundered back-to-back wins, for only the second time this season. Three in a row? It's not for me, nor is boss John Sheridan getting carried away.

Sure, they could win. One defeat in six games, eight goals for and five against indicates a point, at least, is quite possible, especially against a side whose local media has written off their play-off hopes. So the conclusion is to lay Plymouth's opponents once more.

Burton 1.85 v Wycombe 4.7; The Draw 3.8

A natural aversion to odds-on prices simply has to be swallowed. As Opta point out, the Brewers have won their last nine at the Pirelli, scoring 21 goals and keeping four clean sheets.

In those circumstances 1.85 is positively generous and to oppose them you'd want a team equally formidable away. That is not Wycombe. Gareth Ainsworth's side remain a quite capable one, having hauled themselves comfortably out of the relegation zone. But they have won twice and drawn once in seven games, including two out of three defeats away. Nor do they much like clean sheets.

Goals from midfield are what Gary Rowett thinks can sustain the Brewers. Winger Jacques Maghoma already has 14, the leading light above 13-goal strikers Billy Kee and Calvin Zola.

So, over 3.5 goals @ 3.0 sounds like a good value addition to backing Burton, who have 27 points from 14 games in 2013.

Recommended bets:

Back Burton @ 1.85

Back over 3.5 goals @ 3.0

Port Vale 1.8, v Aldershot 5.2; The Draw 3.8

After dismissing the risky bets above, there is one where I am prepared to get my hand stuck in the jar and seek value. I have logic to back up a thought formed a week ago that this could end up 0-0.

Shots keeper Jamie Young has made a resilient rallying call, but in all probability Aldershot Town are likely to remain bottom of the Football League on Monday, the 21st anniversary of the old club being liquidated.

The club is in far better financial shape than in 1992, and crowd attendances are more than twice as big. My goalless theory was formed before last Saturday. Then Port Vale actually won for the first time in six games. But it was only York - and only a second win in nine. Reasons against Micky Adams' men continue: at home, they have been picked off by Southend, Exeter and Morecambe and drawn with Bradford - 0-0.

Meanwhile, The Shots have drawn five of the last six away games - three of them 0-0, the other two 1-1 after leading. On their last journey, Bradford only pegged them back via a 90th minute penalty. Mix that with Aldershot scoring just six in nine games against the Valiants, as Opta point out, and a tight game looks guaranteed. It is one where Aldershot can earn something.

Recommended Bets:

Lay Port Vale against Aldershot @ 1.8

Back 0-0 and 1-1 with half a point each at 12.5 and 7.6 respectively.