League Two Betting: Rotherham can aim high at leaders

1Apr 2013

Betfair

Gillingham's slim wins at home recently fail to convince Ian Lamont they can beat Rotherham on April Fool's Day, while he believes three other teams can confirm their superiority on their own turf...

Gillingham 2.38 Rotherham 3.3; The Draw 3.45

Students of form found April Fool's Day came early - on Friday and Saturday. Will unexpected results continue? You bet they will as the season enters its climax and teams at both ends scrap for every point.

One question among Monday's minefield is have Gillingham slipped up sufficiently at home recently to give Steve Evans' side a sniff as they take aim at League Two's top team?

The Millers are just the sort of team who can cause the most in-form sides trouble when they find their rhythm, for example winning 4-0 at Oxford and 2-1 at Bristol Rovers. Lee Frecklington should provide plenty of chances for the strikers, among them Daniel Nardiello who will look to add to his 16 goals.

Alex Revell should really have netted more than five this season, but if defender Kari Arnason is going to supply him with flick-ons you can bet that set pieces will be a big part of the Millers' preparations.

Delighted with a clean sheet, Evans will need to inspire his side imaginatively if they are to beat a side who have lost just once in 11 overall and whose seven-game unbeaten run, Opta point out, is the longest in the division this season.

The Gills' run is splattered with draws. Three wins from four at home should inspire, but do not as they were against lowly sides. They have also lost to Oxford and Wycombe at home. Expect a tight game at least and, with the hosts quite a big price to lay, the draw is worth the chance.

Back Gillingham and Rotherham to draw @ 3.45

AFC Wimbledon 2.34 v Barnet 3.4; The Draw 3.45

Prices are big this weekend. Even the layers realise there are few teams who look like certain winners. This gives punters good value. There are plenty of tempters, but AFC Wimbledon make one of the strongest appeals.

The Dons are unbeaten at home in 2013 with five draws and more importantly three wins. After Neil Ardley set a target of five wins to stay up, they have won four times in six games, as Opta note.

Barnet have also shown dramatic improvement under a change of manager, Edgar Davids, but mainly at home. Their last six away trips have earned just a single success, at freefalling York.

While the Bees are more desperate, on form lines the price on the hosts seems large, especially if Ardley can continue to get the best out of Jack Midson, who has three goals in five games.

Back AFC Wimbledon @ 2.34

Exeter 2.2 Rochdale 3.55; The Draw 3.6

Backing desperate Aldershot - who look all but relegated to me - at 2.84 at home to beat Oxford has its temptations, especially as the club opens its new community stand at the game. But I can't recommend doing so without knowing whether talisman Danny Hylton will be fit.

Less exciting, but probably more profitable, is a wager on Exeter to defeat a limited Rochdale side who for large parts of Saturday's draw looked devoid of confidence.

Unlike the Grecians, whose were jittery at home until a few weeks ago. Now they are unbeaten in five at St James' Park and hoping that Craig Woodman's luck with deceiving keepers from corners can last.

Paul Tisdale's side have had a few problems scoring of late, drawing four blanks in five games emphasise Opta, but the Dale have registered just two goals in their last six away matches. Furthermore, Exeter have four clean sheets in seven games. Perhaps we should not expect a classic, but do expect a home win.

Back Exeter @ 2.2

Cheltenham 2.24 Northampton 3.55; The Draw 3.55

Cheltenham really needed to win at second placed Port Vale last Saturday to have a realistic chance of automatic promotion.

They certainly must turn their dominant home form to full advantage against Northampton, who hold that third spot, to maintain their push to avoid repeating last season's play-off place now.

Unbeaten at home since September, the Robins have won their last three at Whaddon Road - and four of their last six. The Cobblers have had acute travel sickness this season. Victory at out-of-sorts Southend in mid-February was their only win in the last six on the road.

Aidy Boothroyd has been juggling his strike force as they try to unlock the key to scoring more than once on average in the last eight games. He also says that not losing in this match is the priority. I love it when managers talk in a such a negative fashion. It shows their nerves.

Maybe his threat to play three strikers - Clive Platt, Ade Akinfenwa and Roy O'Donovan - will earn a point, but I rather think Mark Yates' team will justify home backers.

Back Cheltenham @ 2.24