League Two Betting: Raise a toast to the Brewers

16Mar 2013

Betfair

Ian Lamont says go for a Burton win as they continue great form, having moved up to second. Bristol Rovers and AFC Wimbledon should also continue winning ways...

Dagenham 2.52 v Burton 3.0; The Draw 3.4

I like a beer - a real ale. So I enjoy nothing better than the fruits of Brewers on top form. Burton have spent much of the season living up to the old saying about the black stuff brewed in Ireland: it doesn't travel well and is best sampled at home.

However, recent events suggest Gary Rowett's side can overcome the Opta-promoted history that has Dagenham unbeaten at home against them, in the Football League and the Conference.

The 2-1 scoreline of defeating Aldershot in midweek suggests that Burton might not have hit the heights of bashing four past Fleetwood, when they fleetingly matched home form with an away goal frenzy. But form of 23 points from a possible last 30 and one defeat in 10 games is why Burton now sit second in the league table.

Backable in the League Two winner market at treble figures just weeks ago - understandably given Gillingham's and Port Vale's dominance - a 12.0 quote still offers value if you think they can bridge another five point gap in the next eight games. Gillingham have nine left, and a 10-game points return of 18, for comparison.

Rowett believes coming back from a goal down at Aldershot shows a new resolve away from home. They have enough momentum and confidence to pursue another victory against a Daggers side that has five defeats in 10 and only two victories.

Recommended Bet:

Back Burton to beat Dagenham @ 3.0

Aldershot 2.38 v AFC Wimbledon 3.3; Draw 3.5

Lucky early risers got 3.75 on the Dons to beat rivals Aldershot as they bid for three straight wins for the first time this season. Some traditional bookmakers priced the hosts at even money, but you get better odds on Betfair, if you want them - which, even as a fan, I don't.

Andy Scott's men have come off the peak of victories, drawing three before losing at home to Burton and scratching around for a goal a game, while their visitors have three in each of the last two, both wins.

AFC Wimbledon know all about Aldershot's latest scorer, Paul McCallum, who spent time on loan at Kingsmeadow, so that threat should be negated. But with a clean sheet something of a collectors' item for the south London team - and both teams much changed since a 1-1 draw in November - over 2.5 goals can be added to an away win.

Recommended Bets:

Back AFC Wimbledon @ 3.3

Back over 2.5 goals at 2.2

York 3.15 v Port Vale 2.4; The Draw 3.45

This is a risky game to take chance bet on, but there could be further mileage in opposing Micky Adams' men after laying Vale at Bristol proved profitable.

I believe Adams will sort them out, eventually. But things are so bad at Vale Park that chairman Paul Wildes has been forced to deny there is a rift between manager and players and that the arrival of experienced new faces Lee Hughes and Darren Purse might have unbalanced the squad's dynamic.

In the circumstances, the squad's trip to Cheltenham races could have reinstalled confidence or backfired if it made them all broke. Skipper Doug Loft and Sam Morsy are suspended, so Ryan Burge returns to the squad after Tweeting his displeasure at being told he wasn't required when five minutes from Bristol's ground, thereby breaking club rules.

If the stress of one win in eight with only three goals appears to be nagging the Valiants, the Minstermen are in worse shape - winless in 13, the division's worst run according to Opta. Recent new boss Nigel Worthington has recruited a 19-year-old from Ipswich, Josh Carson, to the midfield, in the hope of rectifying a goal shy four strikes in eight games.

What, in particular, pulls me in is York's draw record - 17 is the highest in England's top four divisions. Of those, eight have been 0-0, including four of the seven in that 13 game winless run. Vale also have two recent goalless draws. The visitors could turn themselves around with a narrow win, so under 2.5 goals is the main bet, but add a rare exact score of 0-0.

Recommended Bets:

Back under 2.5 goals at 1.9 Back 0-0 at 12.0

Bristol Rovers 2.38 v Rochdale 3.1; The Draw 3.55

Keith Hill's assessment that League Two is a "bad league" won't have won his team any fans among opponents. Talk about an easy team talk: "This lot's manager thinks his team should be beating everybody in this league."

Dale have three points from their last five games on the road and only one win in five games overall. They have not scored in four of those. They are likely to find out just how good one of the former struggling sides can be. Having beaten Burton, Exeter and Port Vale in their last three home games with seven games scored and none conceded, John Ward's men will be confident of another win.