League Two Betting: Lay Dagenham as York survive

27Apr 2013

Betfair

The relegation scrap in the bottom division is set up for a tense final day. A point will do for York, while AFC Wimbledon should be able to take a vital victory, believes Ian Lamont...

Dagenham 2.3 v York City 3.4; The Draw 3.35

Which squads have be playing Gloria Gaynor's 'I will survive' in training this week? Of the seven clubs who could still suffer relegation, York must be quietly confident of staying up.

They have good form, unbeaten in five and with three wins including a shock one at Northampton. They are the form team among sides threatened by relegation.

Dan Parslow is sure to have them motivated for his 300th appearance. Having played all but one game this season, he has seen the club struggle to come to terms with their return to the Football League and sack one manager.

It would take a strange set of results to relegate the Minstermen, but it is not quite so hard to envisage Dagenham dropping. They are a point worse off than their visitors and tensions were clearly high in their dugout during last weekend's defeat at Aldershot. Two wins in 13 games makes staying up harder when plenty of others are picking up points.

The Daggers have been eased out from a much shorter price - the fixed odds are 2.1 - layers underlining their urgency for victory rather than it being an accurate reflection of their chances.

At 2.32 they are still worth laying, allowing punters to cover the draw, thereby matching the two bites at the cherry that York have to play with. A draw, if not a win, suits York because Dagenham would stay below them.

York only need a point to stay up, because then Dagenham will finish below them - and the Essex men would at worst finish second bottom unless Aldershot, slated this week by keeper Jamie Young, beat Rotherham with a 10-goal swing. That allows York to go for a victory initially, but batten down the hatches in the second half if necessary.

Recommended Bet:

Lay Dagenham @ 2.32

AFC Wimbledon 1.8; Fleetwood 3.8; The Draw 5.2

A short price on AFC Wimbledon would have been merited at any stage of the second half of the season against Fleetwood. Neil Ardley demanded five wins to stay up and since then has four. After three 1-0 defeats, his side at least gave him two 2-2 draws. Few, apart from followers of this column, surely gave the Dons a sniff at Gillingham where they were 2-0 down last week.

Fleetwood's poor run adds to the sense that the Dons can rekindle the winning ways from mid-February to the end of March, in which the south Londoners won six from 10 and lost only twice.

Graham Alexander's Cod Army have gone severally off the boil. Surely they are regretting ditching Micky Mellon, who led them to two promotions in three seasons. Or maybe they have just suffered second half of the season syndrome, which can hit promoted clubs in particular. Opta's stat that their yellow card count of 86 is a divisional high points to their frustrations.

Two wins in 13 matches is a strong indicator of another defeat here, even if one might scoff when Dons striker Gary Alexander, in a rally cry to fans, suggests keeping the team up would be high on his list of achievements. Players put honours such as promotions - he has two from League Two - on their CVs, not relegation survivals.

Recommended Bet:

Back AFC Wimbledon @ 1.8

Cheltenham 2.1 v Bradford 3.9; The draw 3.5

The Robins might have five straight wins at home - the last four without conceding - but boss Mark Yates is well aware of Bradford's strengths, given his assessment that they are the best team his side has faced this season.

Purely psychology? Manager blather about expecting to win, but Yate' side would have been desperate to avoid last season's play-off fate again by claiming automatic promotion. They have not been good enough, despite the division's third best home points return.

So, there will be tension, especially given that three of those last four home wins came by the minimal scoreline 1-0. Opta's assertion that the Robins have earned the most points over the past 10 games is tempered by their statistic that they have lost a divisional high 26 points from winning positions. Possibly that is more relevant to away form.

However, fast-improving cup kinds Bradford must be considered favourites to win the play-offs and will want to jostle for position here. James Hanson, with his 10th strike, reminded everyone that it is not only Nakhi Wells (18) who has been banging in the goals, while defensively they have a sturdy look.

At the price, the home side are too short as Bradford will be playing with somewhat more freedom.

Recommended Bet:

Lay Cheltenham @ 2.1

Rochdale 2.5 v Plymouth 3.1; The Draw 3.35

John Sheridan is pleased Plymouth have their destiny in their own hands to avoid relegation. Victory at Rochdale would do it and is a stronger possibility than the odds suggest. Keith Hill's men might have only lost once in seven but the signs are their good form has dried, knowing they are safe. George Donnelly, Opta point out, has failed to score in the last three having netted five in seven games.

Plymouth, meanwhile, know they still have work to do and will draw on winning two out of the last four away games, at Southend and, more surprisingly, Chesterfield. Four clean sheets in nine games, with more than one goal conceded just once, will also boost confidence against a side who have drawn the last three at home.

Recommended Bet:

Back Plymouth @ 3.1