League Two Betting: Brown can stop rot at Southend

29Mar 2013

Betfair

The Bard himself could not have done better penning the latest drama at Southend, says Ian Lamont, who thinks their opponents Bradford might just be worth laying on Friday. Port Vale can be opposed in similar fashion...

Bradford 2.12, v Southend 3.75; The Draw 3.55Friday 15:00

Truth really is stranger than fiction: Shakespeare would have struggled to better the script at Southend.

Chairman Ron Martin explained, via a long statement on Sunday, that Paul Sturrock was to be replaced on Monday, yet lead out the team for the Johnstone's Paint Trophy Final on April 7.

Sturrock had failed to earn promotion, he said, leading to the conclusion they had given up on the play-offs. "Not so!" protesteth new manager Phil Brown (a great choice), who says bridging the six-point gap to seventh is his aim.

It's only natural for a new man to show ambition. But, also oddly, the chairman indicated he felt appointing someone in the summer would be too late to impact on next season: well, leaders Gillingham might beg to differ.

So, we shrug our shoulders and assess whether League Two's 12th new permanent manager since the season began can win his first game (which would be a rarity) or at least stop the rot.

Bradford fans have been clinging to slim play-off hopes, too. They have played a game fewer and are only a point behind the Shrimpers. Captain Gary Jones, who missed out on League Two player of the Year, wants to stay whatever the Bantams achieve this season.

Boss Phil Parkinson may want to do likewise after gaining the Football League's outstanding achievement award for reaching the League Cup Final.

Bradford have one defeat in seven (but four draws) since their Wembley appearance, with four clean sheets - in mostly tight games. The first thing Brown will do is try to tighten a Southend defence that Opta emphasise has conceded 16 times in 10 games with no clean sheets.

Bradford will prove stubborn. But with Southend playing for a new boss and their Wembley places, laying the hosts seems a calculated risk worth taking.

Recommended Bet

Lay Bradford @ 2.12

Port Vale 2.2, v Cheltenham 3.65; The Draw 3.5

Thwarted by Saturday's weather, here is another chance of a much-loved 0-0 via a Port Vale home game. The Valiants have stuttered at Vale Park lately with one point from four games. Two wins in nine overall hardly inspires confidence, either.

The Robins were the last visiting team to win at Northampton (nine straight home wins), but have since only won once from nine on the road, drawing four and losing four. They have lost just one of the last five away, however, so will fancy reward here. Laying Port Vale seems sensible, covering the draw, while chancing an exact score bet.

Recommended Bets

Lay Port Vale @ 2.2

Back 0-0 and 1-1 half a point each at 11.0 and 6.8

Wycombe 2.1, v Accrington 3.75; Draw 3.5

Wycombe faced a winding up petition from HMRC for a tax bill recently and, according to one report, believed they should have the ability to settle it with a packed house against Stanley.

Newsflash: Accrington have the lowest average gates in the Football League and therefore probably the fewest travelling fans, even if they need every voice to maintain their League Two status.

Leam Richardson's men have lost eight of their last nine away games. Wycombe, therefore, begin to look generously-priced, until one factors in Stanley's grateful new face Francis Jeffers teaming up with another former England striker James Beattie. Mind you, Lee Molyneux seems more of a danger with three goals in three games.

Wanderers supporters will perk up at one Opta stat: Accrington have failed to score in 15 league games (nine away). Only York (16) have done worse.

Chairboys boss Gareth Ainsworth wants one more win to reach 52 points and this should provide it.

Recommended Bet

Back Wycombe @ 2.1

Burton 2.1, v Chesterfield 4.0; The draw 3.5, Saturday 15:00

The Brewers have nine straight wins at the Pirelli while Chesterfield have pretty much underperformed this season all round.

Clearly it takes a more fashionable side than Gary Rowett's side to go odds-on, for how else can one justify the long price on a side placed third with a strong chance of automatic promotion against mid-table also-rans? Perhaps the Spireites' win at in-form Oxford - somewhat fortunate by all accounts - lives strong in the memory of layers.

With more at stake for the hosts, their desire will surely be stronger. Even if they go behind, they have, say Opta, claimed 19 points from losing positions. Only Southend have done better (20).

Recommended Bet

Back Burton @ 2.1