League Two Betting: Bennett can inspire Wimbledon

23Feb 2013

Betfair

AFC Wimbledon are over-priced for a vital victory at Dagenham and will be inspired by their new captain, says Ian Lamont, who also likes the interim appointment of Alan Knill at Torquay...

Dagenham 1.95 v AFC Wimbledon 4.3; The draw 3.65

Alan Bennett was inconsolable after losing in the play-off final as Cheltenham captain last season, because he hates losing. So it will not take long for him to whip AFC Wimbledon's defence into shape. Indeed, they are now down to conceding just one goal a game, if their last two matches are the new standard. Bennett has played four times and, for the last one - in which he scored - was appointed captain, a role he held for his entire time with the Robins, before Mark Yates decided to go "in a different direction" and suddenly jettison the centre-back from his plans.

Only two defeats in eight games - half of them draws - gives them a better shout of victory at Dagenham than 4.3 suggests, because Dagenham have lost seven from the last 11 matches. Odds-on does not seem right. The visitors also have more urgency, as they are bottom of the Football League. Opta report that Jack Midson has scored in his last two games against Dagenham, who have not beaten the Dons in their three Football League meetings.

There will be those who lay John Still's hosts. But when Bennett talks of the Dons now being "proactive not reactive" during matches, it sounds like he could write scripts even greater than his playwright namesake.

Oxford 2.16 v York 3.65; The Draw 3.5

Had this match taken place during Oxford's December/early January form, they would have been odds-on. That makes them value, now, if we can trust that they have turned a corner after a narrow victory at Plymouth and James Constable finding the net for the 11th time this season. It was his first in five matches, but he has tended to score in groups of games this season.

Victory broke a winless run of five. Constable is full of confidence. He says he and strike partner Tom Craddock are each aiming for 20 each this season. Injuries have prevented Chris Wilder's men front reaching their full potential this season. And while a play-off push looks out of reach, serious attempts at making up the 10-point deficit in 14 games remaining really must start now. They face Gillingham, Port Vale and Rotherham next.

York are fully opposable. They have drawn four of an eight-game winless run and will be looking nervously down as those below them bunch up. In their last six away games, they have scored just twice, picking up three points.

Recommended Bet

Back Oxford @ 2.16

Barnet 2.7 v Rochdale 2.76; Draw 3.45

Despite Rochdale overcoming a poor run with a first victory in seven games, I don't see it being a potential turning point for Keith Hill, for whom it was a first victory after returning as manager. Certainly not when their next opponents are a Barnet side on a generally upward curve (slow burning at times) since Edgar Davids has been at Underhill.

As Opta point out, the Bees are enjoying their best form of the season, winning five of their last 10. The stats men add that Barnet have scored 66% of goals in the second half of games and Rochdale have conceded 55% in second halves. So draw/Barnet tempts in the half-time/full-time market at 7.0 but I'll stick with a good price on the hosts.

Recommended Bet

Back Barnet @ 2.7

Torquay 3.65 v Port Vale 2.12; The Draw 3.6

For reasons all Alan Knill, I want to be on Torquay. I was an admirer when he was boss of Bury, for the style of play and close-knit, small squad. Knill, standing in for the ill Martin Ling, is to some extent guided by assistant manager Shaun Taylor. But surely having watched the Gulls lose at equally poor Aldershot on Tuesday, he must have his own ideas on how to improve a record of just two goals from open play in the last eight games.

The board clearly hope Knill, who forged contacts with Manchester United at Bury, can bring in loan players. Let's hope they back that up with funds. What gives them hope here is Port Vale's penchant for a bad result now and then. Failing to beat Barnet and Morecambe in their last two games, plus the incentive of showing a new boss they don't need to be replaced by loanees, must give Torquay incentive. I'll be laying the visitors, covering the draw.

Recommended Bet

Lay Port Vale @ 2.12