League Two Betting: Accrington to step up pressure on Torquay

2Mar 2013

Betfair

After picking four from five winners in midweek, showing a 4.1 point profit to add to backing AFC Wimbledon at 4.3 last weekend, League Two tipster Ian Lamont continues to use recent, not historical, form as his biggest ally...

Accrington 2.34 v Torquay 3.4; The Draw 3.4

In the past two seasons, a team has fallen from mid-table to be relegated. For Lincoln and Macclesfield, the decline began in late March when they thought they were safe. Torquay have begun an alarming slump early. Just when you thought a "temporary" manager could swing things around, with impeccable timing they bump into an unfashionable side who looked on the slide but who have suddenly started collecting points.

Torquay fans must be wondering if the board all walked under dozens of ladders at once to get this much bad luck all at once.

Have Accrington had a rare week of fortune or is this a turning point? They have always relied heavily on the "name" up front - James Beattie, since his arrival in the autumn. They just didn't get him the ball. Winning 3-0 at Rochdale after a score draw with Cheltenham suggests that Leam Richardson might have started to find the old spirit John Coleman conjured so well. Their form can be made to look rosy. They have just two defeats from six matches and five goals in two games.

Interim Torquay boss Alan Knill knows he needs a complete squad overhaul if he is to arrest a slide of seven straight defeats and just one win in 14 games, stats Opta are keen to emphasise. Last season their favourite scoreline was a 1-0 win. Now they have suffered four 1-0 defeats in six games.

Recommended Bet:

Back Accrington @ 2.34

Exeter 2.38 v Northampton 3.2; The Draw 3.5

Occasionally I forge an argument that sees Exeter win at home. This could be another chance, but I have lost faith. Northampton have won two from four recent away matches and really must make the most of the Grecians' poor home run to maintain their hunt for automatic promotion. Four wins and a draw gives them plenty of confidence - and Aidy Boothroyd seems aggrieved at only drawing with AFC Wimbledon last midweek.

To be fair to Exeter, Paul Tisdale's side are undefeated in 10 of their 17 home games - and quite capable of beating anyone, just only away from home it seems. Their six-game home form reads LDWLDW, defeating Accrington last time. And the only game they have conceded goals in during the last five was the 4-2 drubbing at in-form Burton. The respective records really point to a draw.

Bristol Rovers 2.5 v Burton 3.1; The Draw 3.4

As often happens when a team earns breathing space at the bottom, a little shine has come off the Pirates' crusade to stay up. John Ward's team have one point from three games, coinciding with a run of games against teams who have just as much, if not more, at stake in Rotherham and Northampton and also in-form Morecambe.

Now they face the might of laser-sharp Jacques Maghoma's top form supplemented by a Billy Kee brace on Tuesday. The Brewers have cooked up 30 points from 16 games, including improving their away record. To say they are three unbeaten away might not seem huge, but it is for Gary Rowett's poor travellers who, home and away, are on a run of five victories in seven unbeaten games.

Rowett is reluctant to make changes on such a winning run. Their best unbeaten away run this season is four, garnering eight points. They have the talent to match that tally with victory here, especially as the Pirates, Opta point out, have just one clean sheet in 12.

Recommended Bet:

Back Burton @ 3.1

Cheltenham 1.8 v AFC Wimbledon 5.0; The Draw 3.8

Neil Ardley will be without three players and a fourth is a doubt for this game, having targeted five wins to keep AFC Wimbledon in League Two. History suggests the Dons will need every one of those additional points. Ardley has not pinpointed specific games, rather saying it is "tunnel vision" until that aim is achieved over the next 12 games.

Wimbledon are on their best unbeaten run of the season - four games, gaining eight points. Their best run previously was six points from four unbeaten. The fact that run was also in 2013 show you their improvement. Having tipped them at 4.3 to win away last weekend, the repeat at 5.0 is tempting - and certainly the form makes the Cheltenham's win price too short.

Mark Yates' promotion-chasing charges might not have lost in 14 home games, but they have drawn four from the last five at Whaddon Road, something Opta are keen to point out. Critically, their opponents were strugglers York, Bristol Rovers and Aldershot - plus out-of-form Rochdale. AFC Wimbledon will fancy it is their turn. Laying the hosts is cautious but practical.

Recommended Bet:

Lay Cheltenham @ 1.8