League Two Betting: Accrington can steal march on rivals

12Apr 2013

Betfair

The weather might have improved, but with four points separating them, seven teams are skating on thin ice in the tightest League Two relegation scrap Ian Lamont can remember. Stanley can get a head start on their rivals on Friday night...

Accrington 2.4 v Morecambe 3.3; The Draw 3.5 Friday, 19:45

Accrington's recent resilience prompts a strong feeling they will win. Influenced by former England internationals Francis Jeffers and James Beattie, Lee Molyneux seems to have taken the bit between his teeth to score regularly.

Now, Padraig Amond is determined to put his injury frustrations behind him. His absence coincided with the club's protracted drop in league placings.

Stanley have won three from six games and only lost one. They have scored three times in each of their last three at home. Leam Richardson certainly whipped up the right sort of storm ahead of the "War of the Roses" when they travelled to York, where they achieved a draw.

Morecambe have taken just one point from their past four away and are safe, clear or relegation and promotion after taking their first win in seven games - their longest winless streak according to Opta - with victory over Rotherham.

Kevin Ellison is one of the danger players who will still have to be watched, as he demonstrated with his last-minute goal, even if his old club's supporters cared little for his celebrations.

Opta also note that Accrington have never lost to Morecambe in the League, winning seven of 11. As well as thinking they won't start now, I believe Stanley can avoid the Friday night shock and win. Don't worry if it is level pegging at half-time: Jim Bentley's men have conceded a league-high portion of goals in second halves (72%). Value seekers will be pleased that the home win price has lengthened from 2.2 early this week.

Recommended Bet:

Back Accrington @2.4

Wycombe 2.54 Aldershot 3.1; The Draw 3.35

I've lost count of the times I've predicted a side to win, but they fail - only to triumph in the next game. But I can tell you that, in the light of Aldershot's 1-1 draw at Port Vale on Tuesday, their price for victory at Adams Park has shortened from 3.5.

So, as Richard Osman might say on BBC hit TV quiz show Pointless, very well done to anyone at home who got that.

Because if you did, you can now cashout. If not, Opta offer that Wycombe have scored just twice in five league games.

They have resulted in two 1-0 wins, both away where you would expect any team to eschew a tighter line than at home, where they have lost three of the last five and won once - 1-0. Those most recent victories have secured League Two football for Gareth Ainsworth's side for another season.

Aldershot, at least, have scored in each of the last seven games, including three by Paul McCallum and three as a club against Oxford, while holding last Friday's 7-1 winners Port Vale to a 1-1 draw.

So, while Opta add that the two sides have drawn their last three against each other - two goalless - and emphasise that Andy Scott's side have drawn seven of their last eight away games, it really is now or never for the bottom-placed Shots.

Home games with Southend and Dagenham await. Then it is Rotherham away. Back in January, when the Shots beat the Millers in the FA Cup quite comfortably, one wag in the stands said: "It wouldn't surprise me if this lot got their revenge by relegating us on the final day."

Here's hoping they can end all doubt before then.

Recommended Bet:

Back Aldershot @ 3.1

Torquay 2.5 v Barnet 3.15; The draw 3.4

Whatever happens at Wycombe, each relegation-threatened side are lucky, perversely, that just four points separate the bottom seven sides: Any slip-ups are not terminal.

The thinness of ice is quite the tightest I can remember over the Football League's trap door. The drop from 2001 is fresh in one Torquay fan's mind, even if he was locked out of the loser loses all clash with Barnet on the final day.

Billing this weekend's game as "colossal", Opta will not please him by revealing that the Gulls have shipped 19 goals in the final 15 minutes of games, a joint league high with Morecambe, nor that only York have accumulated fewer points over the last 10 games than Torquay, who have lost their last three games.

Not helping Torquay's cause is Alan Knill's deliberate policy to pull in loan players backfiring. Now Sheffield United have recalled Jordan Chapell, on top of Joss Labadie going back to Notts County, having netted four times in six games and being the only Gulls player to score in the past three matches.

Barnet, meanwhile, might be no great shakes away but won at AFC Wimbledon on their last trip and have four clean sheets in five games. That gives them something to build on and more than a sniff of victory at a good price.

Recommended Bet:

Back Barnet @ 3.15

AFC Wimbledon 2.7 v Exeter 2.8; The Draw 3.5

There must be something in the water in Devon. Torquay have three straight defeats. Exeter have four. Opta state these are the worst runs for both clubs this season. Exeter have even lost twice on their cherished road trips (they top the away wins charts with Gillingham and Port Vale on 11).

The Grecians can expect a cauldron at a packed house Kingsmeadow. Stand up and be counted is the message from 21-year-old Harry Pell for the hosts, who have not scored in four of the last five. Exeter have two goals in four games - and one in four away games.

Don't expect a classic, as survival desire trumps the aspiration to climb back into the top seven from the visitors.

Recommended Bet:

Back AFC Wimbledon @ 2.7