League One Tips: Sky Blues to continue promotion push

22Mar 2013

Betfair

Starved of Premier League action this week, Paul Robinson takes a look at Betfair's Fixed Odds markets for League One. Here are his selections:

Sheffield United v Brentford

Back the Draw @ 3.25 (9/4)

Back Under 2.5 goals @ 1.6 (6/10)

It's second v fourth in League One on Saturday as Brentford travel to Sheffield United for a game that is live on Sky Sports Two at 12:45. Both of these sides are battling for promotion to the Championship and I have a feeling that the spoils will be shared.

Sheffield United were the pre-season favourites to win the league and while they are only four points off the top with a game in hand, their progress has always looked a touch laboured to me. Their run of seven without defeat was ended last time out in a shock 4-0 hammering at Stevenage and it will be a true test of Danny Wilson's mettle to get them to bounce back.

The Blades' form at Bramall Lane hasn't exactly been hot of late, or all season in truth. They have won just seven of 18 matches on home soil and lost three of their last half dozen. In all fairness those defeats are their only ones this campaign, but they have drawn far too many and scoring goals has been a real issue at times.

Brentford bounced back from a pair of defeats to win their last two games and they're now back in the automatic promotion places. Uwe Rosler's men are just two points behind Doncaster at the top, but on the other hand they're only four points clear of Yeovil in seventh.

The Bees have lost three of their last four away from Griffin Park but prior to that it was just one defeat in 11, five of which were draws. Given the tightness of the table I'd expect that Rosler would take a point if offered one now and that plays into my thinking of backing the draw.

Brentford aren't going to go gung-ho in order to win this match and with United having a few issues in front of goal, 0-0 or 1-1 are the two most likely scores. The draw can be backed at 3.25 (9/4) which I feel is the value in the match odds market. I'd also strongly recommend a bet on under 2.5 goals at 1.6 (6/10) as nearly all the statistics point that way.

Hartlepool v Walsall

Back Hartlepool @ 3.0 (2/1)

Back Hartlepool to win 2-1 @ 10.0 (9/1)

Hartlepool take on Walsall in what is almost a must win game for the club on Saturday, and with that in mind, I feel their odds of 3.0 (2/1) are just too big to be left un-backed.

I tipped Hartlepool to avoid defeat at Oldham in the week and while they were beaten 3-0, it wasn't a game they deserved to lose by that margin. John Hughes' men had 49% of possession, 11 shots on target and eight corners compared to Oldham's 13 on target and three corners. Ultimately it's the final score that matters though, but I do have faith in Pools' ability to bounce back on home turf.

The Monkey Hangers are unbeaten at Victoria Park in six - winning three and drawing three. The defence has been exceptionally tight with four clean sheets and just two goals conceded in that period. As they are now seven points adrift of safety with just eight games to go, three points is absolutely vital on Saturday and the crowd could prove to be the 12th man.

Walsall are flying this season and last year's 19th placed finishers are up in ninth, just three points adrift of the play-off places. They are unbeaten in nine, home and away, and will be in jubilant mood after coming back from 2-0 down to draw with Crawley last time out, with a pair of goals in injury time.

The reason I am opposing them this weekend though is simply down to the odds. I just think there is too much disparity between their price of 2.3 (13/10) and Hartlepool's price of 3.0 (2/1). I appreciate that Dean Smith's team are much higher up the table but the English lower leagues can throw up some shock results at times. They are also away from home and it's simply win or bust for Hartlepool.

If you're looking for a correct score bet in this game then I wouldn't put you off backing a 2-1 home win at 10.0 (9/1). I mentioned Hartlepool's strong home defence earlier but I can see Walsall possibly nicking a goal, especially with Will Grigg in such good form.

Portsmouth v Coventry

Back Coventry @ 2.1 (11/10)

Back Draw/Coventry @ 5.0 (4/1)

Portsmouth do battle with Coventry in a game between two clubs who don't have a penny to rub together. They were both relegated from the Championship last year and while Pompey are going to go down again, Coventry are just three points off the play-off places.

It's been a tough few years for Portsmouth fans so it's best not to dwell on them too much. They are currently eight points adrift of safety and unlike the teams around them, I wouldn't give them much hope of pulling themselves out of trouble.

Guy Whittingham's side have rallied a bit in recent weeks though. After losing nine straight matches, they have only lost two of their last eight, including a couple of victories over Crewe and Bury. They're three without defeat at Fratton Park, but I just don't see them having the quality to fend off Coventry for 90 minutes.

The Sky Blues are in limbo at present as while they are within touching distance of the play-offs, their financial troubles could see them go into administration and incur a points deduction. Nevertheless, it doesn't seem to have been affecting the players adversely as they've won three of their last five.

Steven Pressley has done a decent job since he was appointed manager and the former City player could be the man to lead them back into the Championship. Their away form has simply been incredible; four straight wins and 10 victories in their last dozen on the road. The only defeat came at Carlisle but I'm more than willing to forgive them that one.

Coventry should be odds-on for my money, so 2.1 (11/10) is a steal. I can see Portsmouth holding out till half time though as they are a resilient bunch, so I think that backing Draw/Coventry in the HT/FT market at 5.0 (4/1) has mileage.

Recommended Bets

Back a Sheffield United v Brentford draw @ 3.25 (9/4)

Back Under 2.5 goals in Sheffield United v Brentford @ 1.6 (6/10)

Back Hartlepool @ 3.0 (2/1)

Back Hartlepool to win 2-1 @ 10.0 (9/1)

Back Coventry @ 2.1 (11/10)

Back Draw/Coventry in the HT/FT market @ 5.0 (4/1)

Prices are based on our Fixed Odds product, so any winnings are exempt from commission.