League One Betting: Swindon's defence to stand firm for live TV encounter

2Feb 2013

Betfair

Following a weekend of FA Cup shocks and surprises, our man Alan Dudman will be against Brentford and Oldham this weekend, with both returning to League One action. Meanwhile the Sky cameras head to Crawley for Saturday's live fixture, and Swindon will be very hard to break down.

Crawley Town 3.35 v Swindon Town 2.26, the draw 3.50

Saturday 17:20 BST, Live on Sky Sports 2

It's been a mixed week for Swindon Town, the welcome news of a takeover (subject to Football League approval) was more positive than the departure of Matt Ritchie to promotion rivals Bournemouth. Ritchie had netted 10 goals this term from out wide, but few in the league can compete with the financial muscle of the big-spending south coast club, who got their man for £500,000.

The attacker's goals will obviously be missed, but the basis of Swindon's rocking good form has been their defence. Away from the County Ground they have the second- best record of goals conceded (just 11), and have shipped just the 11 in 13 games on their travels.

Robins boss Paolo Di Canio was in criticising mode on Tuesday night following their 0-0 draw at Leyton Orient. However, they played fairly well in difficult conditions. I thought they had the best possession (certainly in the first-half) and limited Orient to their first proper shot late in the goalless affair.

Their big performance away from home this season was at Bournemouth, and they looked well organised in a game ruined by the weather. Their defence is key to a number of bets this weekend, with Swindon conceding just two goals in their last nine matches.

That defensive strength might pose problems for the home team. Crawley have been a side this season that show loads of possession but lack something in the final third. Their leading goalscorer is Billy Clarke - with nine, but they don't do enough with the ball in the danger areas.

The Sussex outfit also might be a bit cold here, as their last outing was back on January 12th, and they have only played two league matches since New Year's Day. Manager Ritchie Barker has been fairly busy in the transfer window, signing right-back Mustapha Dumbuya - a defender with high energy who bombs forward. Whilst ex Gillingham central defender Connor Essam has joined up too. Former Brighton midfielder Matt Sparrow made his debut against Tranmere in their last league outing, and he's a tidy footballer in the centre.

Swindon will be hard to score against, especially considering Crawley's lack of a killer touch in front of goal.

Recommended bets:

Back Swindon to win 0-1 @ 8.80 and 0-2 @ 13.0

Back under 2.5 goals @ 1.90

Back under 1.5 goals @ 4.0

Yeovil Town 3.05 v Brentford 2.46, the draw 3.50

I mentioned in rather glowing terms the abilities of Yeovil forward Paddy Madden a couple of weeks ago before the 'beast from the east' turned up in the UK. That spate of snow claimed the Glovers fixture against Preston - for which Madden gleaned a headline. You can read about him again, but since then he bagged another couple of goals.

The said double was on Tuesday against the MK Dons (a 2-1 win), taking his tally to 14 for the season and six from his last three games. The 22-year-old has what so many teams in this league can't manage - a forward to finish off their possession, admirably shown with his second goal in midweek by showing pace from a fine cross. He looks as though he can score in every match at the moment, and Yeovil have players that make goals.

Manager Gary Johnson again deserves the accolades for guiding this unfashionable club to within three points of the top six, and as I stated previously about the spirit at Huish Park, the squad are all playing for their boss, and he is ultra confident with his young side at the moment. And they trade at a very tempting 7.20 for a top six finish.

Yeovil will also still be fairly fresh, as Tuesday's 2-1 win was their first match since January 12th. They are just one defeat from their last eight and have won four on the spin.

Now on to Brentford, the FA Cup heroes of Sunday. Their outstanding effort against Chelsea at Griffin Park was one of a number of cup shocks, which funnily enough mostly involved League One teams. The effort from the Bees over the weekend was staggering, and unsurprisingly, they looked legless at the end of the game. Which is why they must be taken on this Saturday.

Players and managers hate to admit it, but big draws against big teams are a distraction. Brentford's League One form at the moment is not so impressive, with just one victory against Oldham from their last four outings . The Bees snuffed out Chelsea superbly, highlighting the supreme tactical brain of their boss Uwe Rosler, and for long spells actually looked the better team.

However, their replay at Stamford Bridge will be lurking on the horizon, which is why I am sticking with Madden and Yeovil.

Recommended bets:

Back Yeovil to win @ 3.05

Back Yeovil to win 2-1 @ 13.0, Yeovil to win 3-1 @ 29.0

Back over 2.5 goals @ 2.10

Walsall 2.22 v Oldham Athletic 3.55, the draw 3.50

Another FA Cup related style approach to this Saturday's game at The Banks's Stadium, with the burning question surrounding Oldham. Can they replicate last weekend's mighty 3-2 win over Liverpool in the fourth round? Well their league form says no, and they have slipped down to nineteenth in the table. That monumental performance against the Reds masked their poor League One efforts, although equally staggering was chairman Simon Corney's words saying that manager Paul Dickov's job is "OK for the time being".

Dickov has strengthened the squad in the transfer window, signing veteran Scottish forward Chris Iwelumo, the even older Paul Murray (at 36 years of age), and young Reading midfielder Jordan Obita.

I am always very dubious of teams showing massive improvement against higher ranked opponents in both FA and Capital One Cups. The way Oldham were throwing themselves into tackles against Liverpool should be seen on a weekly basis, and I think they will have an eye on their fifth round clash against Everton.

Which is why I am keen on Walsall here, who hopefully will keep hold of their prized assets (at the time of writing Sky Sports anchor Jim White is limbering up for deadline day special up to midnight). Those young players include 21 year-old Will Grigg, who has hit 10 goals this season, Jamie Paterson and George Bowerman.

I have long been a fan of Walsall manager Dean Smith, who has developed young players superbly at the Midlands club, whilst playing with a fair bit of style on a number of occasions. They were defeated 2-0 at struggling Colchester last Saturday, which ended Walsall's run of four straight wins. That was a poor and turgid game where they couldn't assert themselves in the match.

I take the positives from their season's best display previously in beating Bourmemouth 3-1 on home soil, a match in which their possession was excellent against an admittedly shaky Cherries back line. Grigg ran the defence ragged that day, and hopefully Walsall can continue their fine recent home form (winning three times in January at The Banks's).

Recommended bets:

Back Walsall to win @ 2.22