League One Betting: Saddlers to edge Friday's live Sky encounter?

4Jan 2013

Walsall will be starring in front of the Sky cameras on Friday night for only the second time this season, and our League One man Alan Dudman thinks they might be good enough to edge a result. Meanwhile out-of-form duo Portsmouth and Colchester will be big prices for the pick of the League One encounters on Saturday.

Walsall 1.96 v Portsmouth 4.20, the draw 3.85

Friday 19:45, live on Sky Sports 1

According to the Opta stats, Walsall have won just one of their last five clashes with Portsmouth (W1, D2, LD), but head into the Friday night game brimming with confidence after a decent run of Christmas results.

The Saddlers won three of their matches over the festive period, including a mighty 4-2 win over promotion chasing MK Dons, and a couple of home 1-0 wins (including the latest over Stevenage). I am personally pleased for their likeable manager Dean Smith, who has a young team playing for him, achieving this with a decent passing game.

Smith has long been starved of the rich talents of precocious on-loan Stoke midfielder Florent Cuvelier, who suffered another hamstring injury during his short-lived comeback against Stevenage recently, and we might not see him in action in this division for a while - which is a huge shame as he is a gem of a player. There is also an injury doubt to left-back Andy Taylor with a groin injury.

Walsall have been lining up 4-2-3-1 and moved 11 points clear of the drop zone thanks to their string of recent results, with their youngsters learning all the time. Winger Jamie Paterson scored a screamer against Stevenage and he's been back to form of late.

Portsmouth are 13 games without a win and lost all three of their matches over the holiday period. Their New Year's Day match against Swindon was a horror show. For 60 minutes they were OK, as their tactics to frustrate were working. A crazy spell of indiscipline in the second-half saw them concede five goals, and they barely had a sniff themselves.

Caretaker manager Guy Whittingham might try the same sort of holding plan in the first 45 minutes for this encounter considering the pair's contrasting runs, and as Walsall managed two clean sheets out of their last four games it might be worth playing around with a 0-0 and low scoring encounter before the break In-Play.

Recommended bets:

Back 0-0 up to half-time

Back Walsall to win @ 1.96

Back Walsall to win 1-0 @ 9.50

Crewe Alexandra 2.25 v Stevenage Borough 3.40, the draw 3.55

I always enjoy writing and learning about Crewe, as their manager Steve Davis is quite an interesting tactical man. His bold ploy of playing a back-three has been ditched, but I admire his (and the club's) principles. I was reading an interview with seldom-heard Doncaster midfielder James Harper, who stated League One standard is way below the Championship and there are too many long balls. Crewe wouldn't be one of those teams.

Davis maintains the home set-up is based on quite a tight model, and the Railwaymen showed that on New Year's Day with a 1-0 victory at the Alexandra over Carlisle United. The flying Finn Lauri Dalla Valle got the important goal, and it will be fascinating to see if they extend the Fulham youngster's loan spell. The Alex passed the ball well enough in that game without ever looking a huge threat up front. However, they are the 'school of science'.

I would say they are more open on their travels, and got hit at Tranmere over Christmas 2-1, with Crewe using the now familiar 4-3-3.

Opta stats reveal the Alex have never beaten Stevenage in any of their three previous meetings, but the Hertfordshire side are woefully out of nick. In fact their record of one win from eight reflects poorly on a side I always marked down as tight, well organised and intent on keeping a good shape.

It's probably the first test for their fledgling boss Gary Smith, who might want to make this game as horrible as possible. Their 1-0 defeat to Walsall recently had 0-0 'written all over it' according to Smith, and have always been their strongest in a 4-5-1. Attack might be compromised considering their run of form, but Crewe might be able to scrape a win.

Recommended bets:

Back under 2.5 goals @ 1.90

Back Crewe to win 1-0 @ 8.0

Back 0-0 @ 11.0

Doncaster Rovers 1.75 v Colchester United 5.50, the draw 3.80

Colchester are unfortunately showing relegation form, and have lost their last seven games. Manager Joe Dunne is a man under pressure and his flagging side were hit 3-0 by Crawley on Tuesday. Sloppy goals were once again the problem, and the Essex outfit are starting matches poorly.

On the plus side young Drew Wright looks a highly accomplished player, which says something when a 17-year-old is really standing out.

Meanwhile Doncaster have been a revelation on their travels, and according to Opta stats , have picked up an impressive 30 of their 47 points away from the Keepmoat. Their home record is modest - the 12th best in the division. However, Dean Saunders men are playing well, and had a decent run of results over Christmas.

They should have picked up all three points on New Year's Day had it not been for a terrible refereeing decision in the 2-2 draw against Sheffield United (having been 2-0 up). And they were superb the game before at Preston, when completely outplaying their opponents to bag a 3-0 win at North End.

Defensively they are good, and have conceded 16 at home this season from 12 games, whilst their attacking threats are potential game winners - especially the excellent David Cotterill.

Although Donny are better away from home, Colchester are in such a bad run at the moment they must be opposed.

Recommended bets:

Back Doncaster HT @ 2.40

Back Doncaster to win 2-0 @ 11.0 and 3-0 @ 13.0