League One Betting: Rosler's Brentford to get the job done

26Apr 2013

Betfair

With the final round of League One matches this Saturday, Alan Dudman is banking on Bournemouth on securing the title (and his ante-post selection), and Brentford taking the points in the winner-takes-all clash at Griffin Park this weekend.

Brentford 2.02 v Doncaster Rovers 3.85, the draw 3.85

Saturday's shoot-out for Championship football is the stand-out game this weekend - with most things settled in the division bar the final automatic promotion place. With Bournemouth already up, the maths are simple - a Brentford win takes them to the second tier. Rovers need a point to secure second place, but can still gain the title if Bournemouth slip up at Tranmere.

The Bees have the best home record in League One, and have lost just two games at Griffin Park all season, so they will be pleased to get back on familiar soil having faced five away trips already this month.

Striker Clayton Donaldson returns for Brentford after a one match suspension, he is part of an attacking troika alongside Marcello Trotta and Bradley Wright-Phillips - all of whom have netted in their last four games. The Londoners have also scored in eight of their last nine matches and are the masters of the late goal too (as I know all too painfully).

Donny have the best away record having collected an astonishing 14 wins on the road, but overall have lost three of their last six games. Their mode is a high tempo early, relying on the long ball and to play in the opponents half. It might look a bit 'land of the giants' at Griffin Park with the visitors, but for me, Brentford are the better footballing team.

Considering the scoring run of the hosts, and their need to go for it in terms of automatic promotion, I am hoping they can deliver - I wouldn't even mind a late goal for once. Opta stats reveal that no side has picked up more points than Brentford (23) from losing positions this season - worth bearing in mind if you are brave enough to place a bigger price order in-running.

Recommended bets:

Back Brentford to win @ 2.02

Tranmere Rovers 4.60 v Bournemouth 1.86, the draw 3.75

I am hoping for a Bournemouth victory this weekend for many reasons. 1) My outright bet for Saturday's game. 2) The Cherries were my ante-post title pick last August at 15.00, and 3) My mate Neil (long time supporter and sufferer) will have no more misery.

It looks fairly simple on paper, Eddie Howe's side have rattled up a sequence of eight successive league wins (a club record). Striker Brett Pitman has found the net in all of his last eight outings, whilst the defence has been the bedrock of this superb run with just two goals conceded in seven games. The Cherries have also won their last four on the road - all with clean sheets.

Tranmere have lost the plot, and have lost their last five clashes 1-0 to make it 12 defeats from their last 16 games. Rovers were flying in the early part of the season, but they have just hit a brick wall and the players' body language recently against Preston was appalling. Opta stats reveal the horror story further, as no side have picked up fewer points than Tranmere (6) in their last 10 matches.

My one worry is that Bournemouth have already sealed promotion so in essence it's 'job done' (the most common used phrase for those who watch horse racing), but one last hurrah will be perfect.

Recommended bet:

Back Bournemouth to win @ 1.86

Back Bournemouth to win 0-1 @ 7.80

Notts County 2.34 v Coventry City 3.20, the draw 3.50

Everyone has a bogey team, Coventry are mine. When I fancy them they stink, when I lay them, they play like the Coventry side of the 90s. I am hoping they perform like the team from the 1890s - who then suffered a record loss to Berwick Rangers 11-2. More relevant historical trends from Opta stats reveal that no side in League One have lost more points from winning positions than Coventry this season (33).

County can still make a top ten finish and manager Chris Kiwomya fielded four youngsters during Saturday's 3-1 win over Colchester United. The Magpies boss faces a tough task in the summer with 15 players out of contract, but at least they have a bit of momentum.

Coventry can't score on their travels either, and have drawn a blank in their last three away games. And with just two scored from their last seven overall, they must be opposed again on Saturday.

Recommended bets:

Back Notts County to win @ 2.34

Back Notts County to win 1-0 @ 8.0

Leyton Orient 1.97 v Oldham Athletic 4.40, the draw 3.50

Orient narrowly failed to make the play-offs, but their manager Russell Slade should be fairly happy with their final league position, which certainly gives him something to build on for next term. At least Slade retained his award for best cap wearer in the division. Graham Westley won the award for v-neck sweater and blazer fashionista.

The Os are in a good run of form at Brisbane Road with five successive victories. Oldham recently secured their League One survival under Lee Johnson, and the rookie manager made eight changes on Tuesday for their midweek clash at Shrewsbury. They lost 1-0, and Johnson described some of the fringe players as 'not being good enough'.

It's a sense of 'job done' for the Latics, as three crucial wins against Bury, Crawley and Yeovil preserved their status in the division, so I am hoping the approach from the Londoners this weekend will be to sign off in front of their home fans in style.

Opta stats back up the chances of Orient, with Bournemouth (24) the only team that have picked up more points than the Os (20) in their last 10 games.

Recommended bet:

Back Orient to win @ 1.97