League One Betting: Preston to shut out improved Pompey this Friday

29Mar 2013

Betfair

Following a 9.48 points profit on last weekend's League One games, Alan Dudman is hoping Preston can once again deliver on the 'unders' front this Good Friday in a host of bets for the bumper Easter weekend.

Preston North End 1.70 v Portsmouth 5.70, the draw 3.95

Although Portsmouth are much improved of late, Preston will be a hard side to beat on home soil this Good Friday given their fine defensive record under new boss Simon Grayson. I mentioned in last week's column how I am drawn to any North End game at the moment - in particular the unders markets.

With Grayson in charge, Preston have only conceded three goals, whilst all of their last seven matches have been under 2.5 goals. They were held 0-0 at the weekend by Leyton Orient, but did create chances, and only met an inspired goalkeeping performance from Os shot stopper Jamie Jones.

Opta stats reveal that Portsmouth have not won at Deepdale in nine attempts (losing six), however they are on their best run of the season, with just two defeats from their last nine. Maybe, just maybe, the great escape could be on?

Pompey were 2-0 winners against Coventry on Saturday, and defensively looked so much better. Forward

Pat Agyemang has been key to their recent run of form as an outlet and the ability to hold the ball up - as previously it was coming back too quickly.

The bets here are to be based on Preston keeping a clean sheet, whilst Pompey's improved form might get us up to half-time by trading on the 0-0.

Recommended bets:

Back Preston to win 1-0 @ 7.0 and 2-0 @ 8.0

Back under 1.5 goals @ 3.0

Brentford 1.90 v Notts County 4.50, the draw 3.60

Brentford boast the best home record in the division this season in terms of most wins. The Bees have collected 12 victories on home soil, conceding just 18 goals in the process. I was most annoyed their game was snowed off recently at Sheffield United, as I really thought it would be a perfect unders bet.

Their recent record of four wins from their last six includes four clean sheets, and their last outing was the 1-0 win over Preston thanks to a 96th minute goal from Sam Saunders - another youngster who has really been shining of late. I would however like to see more from Bradley Wright-Phillips, the loan striker who has yet to find the net in seven games at Griffin Park.

Opta stats show eight of the last nine meetings between the sides have ended in a draw, and I do anticipate a close encounter, which would make that outright price a good trading option, especially considering Brentford's knack of scoring late goals.

Notts County have certainly tightened up under Chris Kiwomya, and 10 of their last 11 games have been under 2.5 goals. If you need any more proof of their defensive strength at the moment, five of their last six outings have been under 1.5 goals.

The Magpies back four were outstanding on Saturday in holding Swindon 0-0, and they dealt with the opponents width really well. They seem to be much better organised under Kiwomya (who should be landing the job on a full-time basis), and will rely on the counter-attack this Friday. Overall, an outright bet for Brentford seems fairly sound at the price, considering the Opta stat that County have not won on the road in their last six games (their longest run).

Recommended bets:

Back Brentford to win @ 1.90

Back Brentford to win 1-0 @ 8.0

Back under 2.5 goals @ 1.80

Back under 1.5 goals @ 3.50

Bury 2.66 v Crewe Alexandra 2.85, the draw 3.50

My project of laying Crewe before their Wembley JPT final once again will rear its head for Good Friday, and the chance to lay the Alex at short price. They are also showing the signs of a classic mid-table side at the moment, by winning just two of their last six matches.

Crewe were beaten 2-0 on Tuesday, and lacked a finishing touch in the final third. Manager Steve Davis will welcome back Mathias Pogba from international duty, and Brad Inman might return too. Davis has hinted at changes, as his team are lacking a killer instinct.

Bury are fighting for their lives with one of the thinnest squads around. They were thumped 4-1 against Bournemouth on Saturday but they played fairly well for a large part of the game and their attitude was praised by Cherries boss Eddie Howe. Their spirit is good, if the quality is lacking.

The men from Gigg Lane created some chances last weekend and have beaten an out-of-sorts Stevenage this month. At least they are scrapping, which is why Bury could be a bet this Easter, with Crewe having one eye on their Wembley final.

Recommended bets:

Back under 2.5 goals @ 1.90

Lay Crewe @ 2.66

Colchester United 3.50 v Bournemouth 2.22, the draw 3.50

Bournemouth are hopefully over their mini-wobble and look back on track for the title having won their last three games in League One. Forward Brett Pitman has scored in all of those clashes, and Cherries boss Eddie Howe has stressed how keen he is to boost their goal difference.

For me, Bournemouth are improved due to some of their players returning from injury, allowing the best footballer in League One, Matt Ritchie, to play in a more advanced role (he was filling in at left-back). And with them in-form again, I make them a good bet this Friday.

Recommended bet:

Back Bournemouth to win @ 2.22