League One Betting: Grayson's Preston to shut door on Borough

8Mar 2013

Betfair

Preston's new boss Simon Grayson faces his first home game at Deepdale this weekend, and Alan Dudman believes the odds-on price should be taken for a North End punt. Whilst at the foot of table, Hartlepool and Colchester continue their battle against relegation.

Preston North End 1.83 v Stevenage Borough 4.90, the draw 3.80

Stevenage returned to winning ways on Tuesday with a 1-0 home win against promotion chasing Brentford, and

that form would make them overpriced at 4.90. However, their rotten run of six defeats prior to that tells me they are exactly the right price - be wary of inconsistent teams at the end of the season.

Boro created lots of chances in midweek and should have killed the game off before half-time against the Londoners. Midfielder Gavin Mahon has recently signed for the Hertfordshire side, and manager Gary Smith praised the experience, and difference the veteran has brought to his team. Mahon sits in front of a back-four usually for some extra protection, and he allowed the attacking players to push forward in that Bees win.

Smith's outfit are a big threat from set-pieces, and they'll probably line up 4-1-3-2. Their away form is inconsistent - losing seven out of 17 games, and they might just be one of those teams set for a mid-table finish.

Preston meanwhile are unbeaten under new boss Simon Grayson. Granted it's only two matches, drawing 1-1 with both MK Dons and Swindon. Their passing has been OK, but they are lacking a killer touch in front of goal. How Grayson would love his old striker Jordan Rhodes.

Opta stats side with the home team here, as Stevenage are yet to beat the Whites in three attempts. Neither club are exactly in blistering form, but Preston beat Bournemouth in a much improved display two weeks ago - remarkably just as Graham Westley left the north west.

Grayson's mode when in the division at Huddersfield was to be organised and strong at the back - which he has created in the last two games. It's also his first match at Deepdale in charge, and any sort of reproduction of the Bournemouth performance will be too strong for Stevenage.

Recommended bet:

Back Preston to win @ 1.83

Hartlepool United 3.35 v Yeovil Town 2.30, the draw 3.55

Hartlepool have lost only once in their last nine league games (five wins) and are a transformed team under John Hughes. With 10 matches to go and seven points from safety, the 'great escape' is still on. They were perhaps rather frustrated with Tuesday's 0-0 draw against Colchester considering their possession, but it was another clean sheet (their third in six outings) and another point towards survival.

Pools are fairly direct, considering a few promising young players. They will sling balls into veteran Steve Howard all day from all over the pitch. Hughes said this a big month for the north east club, but I am thinking the likeliest victory might come on Tuesday at fellow strugglers Oldham (or a game they will see as more winnable).

Opta stats reveal only Walsall (26) have won more points in 2013 than Yeovil (25), and the Glovers are looking like genuine promotion contenders. Gary Johnson's side are now up to fourth and got back to winning ways on Saturday with a 1-0 win over Tranmere.

I really liked their performance against Rovers. The back four dealt with Tranmere's aerial threat superbly, which bodes well for combating Howard this Saturday. Their goal also came from a moment of Ed Upson magic, and plenty of the Yeovil side can produce game-changing spurts.

Overall I think this might be a 0-0 to half-time bet for a trade, and the under 2.5 goals market could be used to cover the stake on the correct scoreline. Opta stats show Yeovil have scored 17 goals in the last 15 minutes of games this season (a league high) which means the chance to perhaps lay the draw In-Play at a much shorter price than the 90 minutes one.

Striker Paddy Madden has hit 19 goals for the Glovers, so it's no surprise that Derby County have been linked with a move for the 22-year-old.

Recommended bets:

Back under 2.5 goals @ 1.97

Colchester United 2.56 v Crewe Alexandra 2.96, the draw 3.50

Colchester are fighting in their battle to stay in the division, and it's the time of year with 10 games to go, that relegation threatened teams suddenly find a bit of form. It's worth looking out for plenty of these types of fixtures in the closing weeks, especially considering mid-table specialists Crewe.

The Alex haven't beaten Colchester in their last three meetings according to Opta, and I would be looking to side against them again for Saturday. Whatever the manager Steve Davis and the players say about no distractions, I think there are. A bad run of form for the Staffordshire club has coincided with their Wembley date booked in the JPT final in April.

Crewe were beaten by Portsmouth on Saturday, and Davis has hinted they need to get back to defending. They have conceded 10 goals in their last five matches and are one win from their last six.

Although Colchester are missing striker Jabo Ibehre (suspended), they might be good enough to nick a win here. Loan signing Troy Hewitt from QPR will be an important outlet if he starts. The Us have kept three clean sheets from their last three games, and their upturn in form has come at a perfect time.

I don't think this will be a great affair, as Colchester boss Joe Dunne has got the defensive tactics spot on recently. They could shade this 1-0 for me, with the possibility of the visitors opting for a more defensive plan. However, the smarter play is an unders bet coupled with a lay of Crewe.

Recommended bets:

Back under 2.5 goals @ 1.88