League One Betting: Crewe an interesting lay on Monday

1Apr 2013

Betfair

Alan Dudman returns to hopefully make the start of a new month a winning one, and is looking to lay Crewe Alexandra, whilst also taking on Tranmere Rovers this Bank Holiday Monday.

Portsmouth 2.82 v Tranmere Rovers 2.78, the draw 3.45

Both clubs haven't got the biggest of squads, which will prove to be a test of their collective strength for Monday's game. The market is finding it hard to split the sides, and this is usually the case when two teams are fairly evenly matched, and the draw is often the best trading option.

Pompey are six points away from safety, and gained another point in their unlikely quest for survival on Friday with a really hard fought draw against Preston. Portsmouth battled and were very dogged in their defensive work, and withstood everything North End threw at them.

Under Guy Whittingham, the Fratton Park outfit are far better organised, and having a much more settled side has helped. Jed Wallace's recent goals have been a bonus, but this is an encounter they'll have to take hold of defensively.

Tranmere are a big threat from set-plays and rely on balls into the area. They are a big, strong side and have just signed Manchester United defender Sean McGinty. He'll fit in well, as he is (you've guessed it) big and strong.

Rovers were simply shut out two days ago when defeated 1-0 against Sheffield United. The 90 minutes showed

their inexperience, as the Blades were up to using the 'dirty tricks' better - according to Rovers boss Ronnie Moore.

My in-and-out play is definitely the draw, which will hopefully get to around 2.0 in-running. And the price is short enough to take on the visitors.

Recommended bet:

Lay Tranmere @ 2.78

Leyton Orient 1.90 v Bury 4.50, the draw 3.80

I mentioned Orient's potential nosebleed recently in reference to their usual wobbling anytime they get near the play-off positions. And true to form, Orient were beaten on Friday at Scunthorpe 2-1 to end their recent seven match unbeaten run.

On the plus side, they haven't become a bad team overnight. The pitch is really poor at Glandford Park, and despite Os manager Russell Slade going with three forwards, they could never quite get going. Their defending wasn't great either - but Scunny are fighting for their lives.

I prefer Orient in a 4-4-2, and they have been playing well recently at home. Two of their three games at Brisbane Road last month were over 2.5 goals, and I think they'll have to go for it here.

Bury's plan will be to press hard and harass as much as possible. Manager Kevin Blackwell recently revealed that defender Joe Skarz had to leave as they simply couldn't afford to pay him. Harry Redknapp often uses the phrase 'bare bones'. Blackwell has gnawed past the bones with not much left.

The Shakers are physical and will make the game messy and bitty. But Orient have some decent creative players, in particular out wide. And as long as Kevin Lisbie starts instead of the unimpressive David Mooney, they look a good bet this Monday. Bury have conceded 35 on their travels too, which makes the overs very interesting aswell.

Recommended bets:

Back Orient to win @ 1.90

Back Over 2.5 goals @ 2.16

Back Orient to win 3-1 @ 19.0

Crewe Alexandra 2.68 v Preston North End 2.86, the draw 3.35

Two of my old friends do battle this Bank Holiday, and I will go with the tried and trusted formula of laying the home team. The Alex have their JPT final at Wembley a week away, and this is the match before that big day.

Crewe have been chronically inconsistent this term, and are a better side than their current league position. They have won nine on home soil, but only one of three in March. Friday's 2-2 draw against Bury was agony for manager Steve Davis, as Crewe conceded a last minute penalty. But for me, the Shakers deserved that point as they created plenty of chances.

Davis has highlighted a lack of goals recently (which was obviously rectified two days ago), but now has a problem with his defence dealing with the ball from wide areas.

Preston still have something to play for. Survival firstly, but also new contracts under the new manager Simon Grayson. Their last three away games have been 1-0, 1-0 and 1-1 - which gives you an idea where I am going. All eight of North End's last matches have been under 2.5 goals. I perhaps was too brave in plumping for the under 1.5 goals on Friday.

North End will keep plugging away and defensively will give very few chances. Granted they had enough opportunities on Friday against Pompey to win the game (finished 1-1), and they will be strong enough to make the Alex a lay again.

Recommended bets:

Back under 2.5 goals @ 1.78

Lay Crewe @ 2.68