League One Betting: Coventry can increase pressure on Westley

25Jan 2013

With Preston North End boss Graham Westley seeking a first home league win since September, our man Alan Dudman thinks Saturday's opponents Coventry are good enough for a draw at Deepdale. Meanwhile Bournemouth have moved into the play-off places, and are odds-on to gain yet another home win this weekend.

Preston North End 2.62 v Coventry City 2.80, the draw 3.50

Preston manager Graham Westley is a man under pressure, and his Whites have not won at home since September (nine games without success). Boos accompanied the team after their most recent encounter on January 13th, a 3-1 home defeat against Walsall, a match in which they lost control of the midfield and folded rather tamely.

In truth, they have been dreadful at Deepdale this season, and their fans expect more than the long ball

stuff that Westley has been serving up. Their big problem area has been right-back this season, so the addition of Leeds defender Paul Connolly is a boost, as he brings experience too.

Opta stats reveal Preston have been involved in a league high of five goalless draws this season (Coventry none) and I think it might be that sort of tight game.

This will also be the third meeting of the two teams in the last five weeks, with December's 1-1 draw at the Ricoh Arena a really scrappy affair. Coventry boss Mark Robins took a swipe at Westley's tactics by saying "we only have to see that style twice in a season." And I expect Preston to try and grind down the visitors.

The Sky Blues were successful last weekend with a 2-1 win over Oldham Athletic, and probably just shaded it despite a late scare (and a sloppy goal conceded). They're perhaps not quite the exciting team they were with David McGoldrick - who has joined Ipswich - and as able as Leon Clarke is up front, he strikes me as needing a few more chances than McGoldrick.

Robins expects long balls and direct play, Preston will sling it in the box to ask questions of Coventry's French defender William Edjenguele, who got roughed up by Oldham's giant forward Matt Smith recently. It will be a good test of their mettle.

The Coventry game plan will be nice and tight early, sit fairly deep and expect the long balls. If they can deal with that in the first-half, the home crowd will get anxious, as Preston will be very short of confidence. This won't be very pretty, much like Graham Westley's pink v-neck and blazer combination.

Recommended bets:

Back 0-0 @ 11.0 and 1-1 @ 8.0

Back under 2.5 goals @ 1.90

Back the draw @ 3.50

Shrewsbury Town 2.30 v Bury 3.45, the draw 3.45

Shrewsbury draw too many games, and they let me down recently against basement club Hartlepool. At the time of writing the club are fairly hopeful of beating the weather, and this was one of the matches I was most keen on.

Salop were beaten easily on Saturday at Swindon, in a fairly dismal display during that 2-0 defeat. They were poor in possession and gave the ball away too cheaply. Manager Graham Turner will also need to shuffle his back-four this weekend, as defender Jermaine Grandison's hip injury has ruled him out until March. He will be a big loss, as his partnership with Darren Jones has been excellent.

The Shrews have only conceded 15 goals at Greenhous Meadow this term, and their solid season has been built on a resolute rearguard, and stubborn back four. Creative-wise, their chief goal-threat is winger Jon Taylor, who has popped up with a few long-range goal efforts. It's worth mentioning that game against Hartlepool, which finished 1-1, as Shrewsbury's passing was a lot better.

According to the Opta stats, Bury are without a win in their last eight league matches and sit in the bottom four. Manager Kevin Blackwell has been linked with a couple of jobs elsewhere, but the 54-year-old seems intent on keeping the Shakers in the league.

Although Bury are inexperienced, they played really well against the MK Dons earlier this month, holding the promotion chasers to a 1-1 draw. Blackwell's tactics were superb, sitting deep and backing off the Buckinghamshire side, a point was thoroughly deserved.

The Shakers are limited, but they keep their shape well. Usually they have an organised game plan and stick to that, with a physical presence up front in the shape of Lenell John-Lewis. Their leader is Stephen Schumacher - whose work-rate is exceptional, whilst forward Nicky Ajose has just been signed on loan.

Bury have not played a game since January 12th, which I think will suit, as their pressing style relies on their strong fitness levels. I am hoping they can get to half-time at 0-0, to use the In-Play trading options, which will hopefully 'green up' the outright on the draw.

Recommended bets:

Back the draw @ 3.50

Back under 2.5 goals @ 1.88

Back 0-0 @ 11.0 and 1-1 @ 7.0

Bournemouth 1.71 v Crewe Alexandra 5.20, the draw 4.0

The Cherries moved in to the play-off places on Tuesday with a 2-1 victory at Hartlepool, with a most impressive team performance. Their passing was superb, as well as their character.

Bournemouth also hold an excellent record at the Goldsands Stadium, losing just once on home soil all season - which is why they are so short this weekend. The transfer window is proving to be quite exciting for fans of Eddie Howe's team, with £400,000 spent on Aberdeen's winger Ryan Fraser and loan addition Dan Seaborne from Southampton. Fraser will hopefully be a fine player, already a Scottish under-19 international, reports suggest he is a real old-fashioned wide man who is skillful and direct.

Their long unbeaten record surprisingly went at Walsall last weekend losing 3-1, which included the most bizarre of penalties conceded. Usually they are reliable at the back, and Bournemouth have the exciting crop of attacking players including Marc Pugh (who missed the Walsall defeat), Josh McQuoid and Lewis Grabban.

For In-Play backers, the first goal will be crucial in this match. Opta stats show that Crewe have not won an away game after falling behind this season (drawn three and lost five). Whilst the Alex have not played a match since January 15th in the Football League Trophy - which is mostly irrelevant regarding league form.

Regular readers of this column will know how much I admire Crewe's system. Manager Steve Davis has a young side who play football and are allowed to develop. It is the ambition of Davis to field a team full of home-grown players this season, and it might not be too far away.

Davis used a 4-4-2 in their last league game at Orient, and they were lucky to gain a point. They barely threatened in the first 40 minutes of that game, and it's unlikely they will go for Bournemouth's throats early here. I am hoping the hosts can revert back to their stout defence, and keep Crewe quiet for the first-half.

Recommended bets:

Back Bournemouth to win 1-0 9.0 and 2-0 @ 9.80