League One Betting: Back the unders in game of the day at Bournemouth

22Feb 2013

Betfair

Promotion chasing duo Bournemouth and Sheffield United clash this Saturday in the game of the weekend, and our man Alan Dudman expects a tight game. Elsewhere Yeovil again look overpriced as they seek a staggering ninth win on the spin.

Bournemouth 2.18 v Sheffield United 3.55, the draw 3.65

This looks easily the best game of the weekend in League One, with second taking on fourth and Sheffield United now recapturing their form. Will they be good enough to test Bournemouth and their superb home record? The layers are offering a fair price (on United), considering they've won their last three.

The Cherries suffered only their second defeat in 22 matches on Saturday, with a 2-0 loss to Preston. A game in which Bournemouth boss Eddie Howe offered no excuses. They were tired and were second best throughout. The goals were cheaply conceded too in a performance that midfielder Harry Arter described as 'their worst' under Howe.

The south coast club have some big clashes coming up against teams in and around them, but will be doing

so without Miles Addison (who has been ruled out for the season with injury) and Tommy Elphick. Injuries to a settled back line will give Howe a headache, as defensively they have only conceded 13 at the Goldsands all season.

Opta stats reveal that Sheffield United have won seven successive games against the Cherries, and have recently hit top form. Saturday's 3-0 win over Colchester was an emphatic display, and a victory that moved them back into the automatic places (at the time).

Defences will have a big say on this encounter, as the Blades have netted only 12 times in 16 games away from Yorkshire, whereas Bournemouth have the second best home defence in the division. The Blades have a lot of experience and nous in the team, and forward Dave Kitson is playing some of the best football of his career. He leads the line well, whilst the midfield 'two' are much more positive recently in a run of three wins in February.

I will expect Bournemouth to revert to a 4-4-2 and ditch the idea of Brett Pitman playing in a 4-5-1, and his quality in front of goal could be more potent than the visitors. The Cherries were held 1-1 earlier this term by Swindon, and that sort of tight game is something I anticipate here.

Recommended bets:

Back under 2.5 goals @ 1.97

Back 1-1 @ 6.90

Scunthorpe United 2.02 v Hartlepool United 4.00, the draw 3.55

Hartlepool are finally off the bottom of the division, and a five match unbeaten run has given the north east club renewed hope of staying up. Credit to new manager John Hughes, who I must admit, I knew very little about. But he has got them fighting since he took over in December, and they have also won three of their last five matches in that unbeaten run.

Saturday's 2-1 victory against Orient was a joy for the Pools fans, but a goal with the very last kick of the game cost this column the 1-1 bet at 7.0. This cruel blow from lady luck has not been the first in the dying embers of matches in these parts. I totted up this season's narrow misses on the correct scoreline front ( I am not bitter honest) and I wasn't surprised - it's happened 10 times - with five stoppage time strikes. See I told you I was not bitter.

Pools are playing some of their relegation rivals coming up and they have a bit of momentum. However, the stat I am most interested in from Opta states that Hartlepool are the league's lowest scorers (with 28), even though they have netted in six of their last seven games. Before the late show against Orient, they never really looked like scoring.

Scunthorpe meanwhile have had a great February, winning three times at Glandford Park with victories against Carlisle, Crawley and Portsmouth. Opta tell us that the Iron's Akpo Sodje has hit four goals in his last three on home soil - a forward I always felt needed a few chances.

Four of Scunthorpe's last five matches have been over 2.5 goals, including that end-to-end 3-1 win over Carlisle. However, with the positions of both teams, I anticipate a slightly tighter game, with Hartlepool relying on the big physical presence of Steve Howard up front.

The draw seems most attractive, which can once again bring into play the much underrated HT market, whilst 0-0 to trade and 1-1 look the most appealing, unless of course someone pops up on 95 minutes again.

Recommended bets:

Back under 2.5 goals@ 2.0

Back the draw @ 3.65

Doncaster Rovers 2.39 v Yeovil Town 3.20, the draw 3.45

This week's trip to Yeovil corner again sees the layers taking a big chance on offering 3.20 for a team that have won eight on the spin. This is the form outfit in the division by some way, and their price has been wrong over the last two weeks. Even better for us Yeovil backers is that Doncaster are out of form.

Back to the Huish Park men, who have run riot this month. They have hit 10 goals in February, won three and conceded just the one (against Preston). Paddy Madden has netted 10 from his last seven, and Yeovil have moved into the play-off places. With goals from midfield and a settled side, they look too big in price again. Opta highlight the remarkable run of Madden, the league's top scorer - scoring in every one of their last eight matches.

They also have had two days extra rest and preparation as Doncaster played on Monday.

Since Dean Saunders left for Wolves, the recent run of Rovers is not exactly promotion chasing stuff. They have won only once from their last five games, and new boss Brian Flynn has suggested missing one or two key elements in their play. They have had injuries to deal with, but their key players missing recently has highlighted a thin squad.

They are very physical, and are one of the biggest teams in the division (ironic as Flynn is one of the shortest managers). They showed their muscle at the start of the week against Crawley in the 1-1 draw, in a fairly physical encounter. Rovers were outplayed and were lucky with a point, and it's a good time to be against them this weekend.

Yeovil were blistering in the second-half last weekend against Scunthorpe, and their high energy midfield can win this match for them.

Recommended bets:

Lay Doncaster @ 2.39

Back Yeovil to win 0-1 @ 11.0 and 0-2 @ 21.0

Back under 2.5 goals @ 1.89