League One Betting: All aboard the Orient express

16Mar 2013

Betfair

Alan Dudman is hoping Leyton Orient can continue their recent good run of form this Saturday against Carlisle, in what should be a slightly more entertaining affair than at Gigg Lane, as basement club Bury entertain fellow strugglers Colchester United.

Leyton Orient 2.06 v Carlisle United 4.10, the draw 3.50

Orient usually start to get a nose bleed once they get anywhere near the play-offs, and a recent unbeaten run of five (including three wins and three clean sheets) means they should be due a wobble. However, I want to keep faith with Russell Slade's side as they bid to push towards an unlikely promotion shot.

Their 1-0 win over Portsmouth on Tuesday was scrappy, but easily their best recent performance was the 3-1 home success against Bournemouth. Very impressive that day was winger Moses Odubajo, and his pace is a good outlet for the Londoners. He also looks remarkably mature for a 19-year-old who has made his way through the Academy.

Orient have not been very consistent at Brisbane Road (losing seven of their 19 games), but Carlisle are not the most consistent either.

The Cumbrians had their Tuesday match postponed, so they will be fresher than their opponents. However, star striker Lee Miller is suspended and the hopes up front rest with 19-year-old Mark Beck - who has been leading the line rather well. Beck is tall and a bit gangly, but his finishing looks of a reasonable quality.

Five of Carlisle's last six games have been under 2.5 goals, with the Foxes finding the net just 18 times on the road all season. They do have one of the worst defences in the division, but manager Greg Abbott recently ditched their passing style for a more defensive approach - which has certainly worked, and would point me to the unders markets. This in contrast to the Opta stats, which tell us the last three meetings between the two sides have produced 13 goals.

However, if Orient reproduce that recent Bournemouth display, the price should be taken.

Recommended bet:

Back Orient to win @ 2.02

Brentford 1.96 v Preston North End 4.50, the draw 3.55

Brentford still trade in single figures for the League One winner market, but haven't quite been their sparkling self since their FA Cup exit at the hands of Chelsea. Two defeats from their last six is currently on the dance card, and they were a bit lucky to gain all three points against Swindon on Tuesday.

Uwe Rosler's team came from behind in midweek and got their goals on the breakaway. Swindon were easily the better outfit but they didn't take their chances.

The Bees have a supreme home record this season, losing just twice and winning 11 of their 19 games. Their play is usually a build-up and patient style, with possession quite important to the midfield.

Preston however are the improvers, and look a big price this Saturday. Under new boss Simon Grayson they are unbeaten in four matches, and are looking a lot more solid and robust - which is no surprise under Grayson considering his days as Huddersfield manager in the league.

North End are also keeping clean sheets (three in five) and will be set up this Saturday for the home team to break them down. The Lillywhites are organised and disciplined, and look a transformed unit (showing more determination) since the Westley days.

Considering Preston's style, I wouldn't think they will take many risks throughout the 90 minutes. The trading of a low scoring game on the correct scoreline appeals most, especially to build a green book quite early. Opta stats reveal Brentford have conceded just three goals in the opening fifteen minutes of matches this season (a league low).

Recommended bet:

Back under 2.5 goals @ 1.85

Bury 2.58 v Colchester United 3.05, the draw 3.40

So bad was a recent Sky TV game involving Hull City, their manager Steve Bruce said that most of the viewers would have switched over to watch the History channel. If this was a live encounter on Saturday afternoon, I would probably be thinking the same, although it would be a tight call against endless repeats of Last of the Summer Wine - perhaps the least funniest program of all time?

Anyway, back to business. This is the relegation humdinger. Bury are absolutely hopeless at the moment, having lost all six of their recent clashes and scoring just two goals in that miserable run. I watched their Friday night Sky game recently (Last of the Summer Wine was not on) and it was one of the worst defensive displays I have ever seen. Shakers boss Kevin Blackwell has been fighting the hopeless fight, and I am afraid they are looking doomed.

Colchester made some silly errors to squander a 2-0 lead on Tuesday to only come away with a point at Coventry, and their manager Joe Dunne might be forced to making some changes with some of his players looking extremely tired.

Dunne has predicted a 'street fight' for this game, on a poor pitch with two sides that don't score many goals. The Essex team can keep clean sheets and although I am seduced by the price of the visitors, the unders look a far more sensible option.

Recommended bet:

Back under 2.5 goals @ 1.80