La Liga: Atletico to gobble up Osasuna

26Oct 2012

Liga BBVA

Tito Vilanova doesn't mind if Barcelona are conceding freely, and neither does Tobias Gourlay

Celta Vigo v Deportivo La Coruna

Saturday 19.00 BST (Live on Sky Sports 1)

Celta Vigo went down 2-0 at Real Madrid last time out.

A ray of light: they followed up each of their first three away defeats of the season with a home win. The market makes them an even-money shot to take another three points from local rivals Deportivo La Coruna, who scored four times last weekend, but still couldn't snap a losing streak that now stands at four.

The visitors have the worst defence in the league to this point, leaking 19 goals in eight games. We should mention, however, they are one of only five teams to have already played both of the Big Two.

Each of Celta Vigo's first four home games have been goalless at half-time, while there have been 12 first-half goals in Depor's four away matches. There are differences between the two sides, then, but they do not close all avenues to a bet.

Celta have found the back of the net twice in each of their last three at Balaidos, while Depor have scored at least once in 7/8 so far, including all four road games.

Recommended Bet

Back Both Teams to Score @ 1.90

Rayo Vallecano v Barcelona

Saturday 21.00 BST (Live on Sky Sports 1)

Rayo 12.5 Barcelona 1.29 draw 6.8

Seven days after winning 5-4 at Deportivo, Barcelona are on the road again.

Madrid-based Rayo Vallecano have lost four of their last five in La Liga and went down 7-0 in this fixture last season, but Paco Jemez's men have enough about them to trouble Barca's makeshift defence.

Although there's a small chance both Gerard Pique and Carles Puyol will be ready to start this weekend, neither is fully match fit and the visitors could struggle to contain a Rayo team that has scored in six of its eight league games to date. Tito Vilanova's league leaders have not kept a clean sheet in any of their first four away games and 1.85 is a reasonable offer on Victor Valdes to get dirty again this weekend.

Barca are still winning - they should continue to do so against a side that's conceded 16 times in its last five games - which means the coach is not on high alert about the defence. He told the press this week: "I think we are the team who has scored the most goals and one thing sometimes compensates for the other."

That one thing tends to be Leo Messi, who scored a hat-trick against Depor. He has now notched a brace or more in 13/23 league games. We mentioned a price of 2.8 for him To Score 2 Goals or More a week ago, but the market is starting to take notice of the three-time Ballon d'Or winner and you'll be lucky to find 2.2 on Saturday.

Recommended Bet

Back Both Teams to Score @ 1.85

Atletico Madrid v Osasuna

Sunday 18.45 BST (Live on Sky Sports 1)

Atletico 1.34 Osasuna 5.5 draw 13.5

Atletico Madrid are perfect at home. Osasuna are pointless on the road.

The result of Sunday's first televised game is not in doubt, so the question is how quickly Atletico will make sure of all three points.

Radamel Falcao is crucial to Diego Simeone's project. The Colombian striker has scored in each of his last seven games, accounting for 12 of the team's 21 goals in those fixtures. The streak might have become eight in Thursday's Europa League game with Academica. Or the main man could be rested.

So long as El Tigre is fit to start Sunday's league game, we will be interested in the double-result market. While Osasuna have been behind at half-time in 8/11 away defeats since the start of last season, Atletico have been ahead at 45 minutes in 3/4 at the Vicente Calderon this term. Malaga, statistically La Liga's best defenders, are the only team to have held them back for long.

Atletico have a strong record of quickly despatching La Liga's weakest teams - effecting win/win double-results against 8/10 visitors from the bottom six - and 1.95 is a good price for them to send Osasuna packing early.

Real Mallorca v Real Madrid

Sunday 20.30 BST (Live on Sky Sports 1)

Mallorca 10.0 Real 1.4 draw 5.3

Just as the world's coaches, captains and journalists cast their votes for the Ballon d'Or, Cristiano Ronaldo has put his sadness behind him and found a little bit of form. Going into Wednesday night's Champions League game in Germany, the Portuguese had scored in six straight club games.

While the team is improving alongside him, the numbers say they might struggle to take this game Over 2.5 Goals. In the last five seasons, five of Mallorca's ten games at home to the Big Two have turned up two goals or fewer. Against all-comers, the islanders' record is 7/9 Under 2.5 Goals since March.

Jose Mourinho has seen 2/4 Real away games stay Under 2.5 Goals this season. So long as his strikers are out of form - Benzema has struck three times in 20 club and country appearances, Higuain has one in six for Real - the value is on the low side of the goals line.

Recommended Bet

Back Under 2.5 Goals @ 2.75

(Source: Betfair)