Is there a silver lining for Bradford City?

 

The odds say Bradford don't have a realistic hope of winning the Capital One Cup final - but do the stats offer any hope? Joe Dyer has found four salient Opta facts to  consider before placing your Capital One bets...

 

A genuine sporting fairytale could become reality at Wembley on Sunday should Bradford City beat Swansea in the Capital One Cup final.

 

The League Two outfit have beaten all-comers on their path to the final starting with Notts County back in round one before penalty shootout defeats of Premier League  outfits in Arsenal and Wigan, topped by that two-legged victory over Aston Villa.

 

If the Bantams win they will have eliminated four top-flight sides, equalling the record Sheffield Wednesday set in 1991 when Manchester United were beaten thanks to a  lone John Sheridan goal.

 

United went on to finish sixth in the league that year with Fergie's glory years still a couple of years off while Wednesday were promoted to the first division, and  the gulf between Bradford and Swansea suggests Sunday's test is far tougher than that which faced the Owls 22 years ago.

 

The Betfair market makes Phil Parkinson's men 10.0 underdogs to win the game in 90 minutes with Swansea priced at just 1.39 to make their Premier League class tell. The Bantams are 6.4 to lift the trophy with the Swans as short as 1.18.

 

Those odds tell you all you to need know about the scale of the task facing Bradford with Betfair customers convinced that Michael Laudrup's men will show their  superiority on Sunday afternoon, so is there hope for fans of the Yorkshire outfit? I've looked at the Opta stats in search of a silver lining...

 

 

OPTA Stat - Swansea's Recent Form: Swansea have only won two of their last eight games in all competitions (D3 L3) and have failed to score in six of those games.

 

Laudrup's side have not scored a goal away from the Liberty Stadium since a 2-0 victory at Stamford Bridge in the Capital One Cup semi-final back in early January.

 

So far so good for Bradford then, with the Swans looking a little toothless in attack at present, but we can crab the stats to a degree. Included in that run are two  0-0 draws at tough away grounds (Everton and Sunderland) and a third at home when denying Chelsea a chance to make this final. A  4-1 obliteration of QPR on February 9  was a sign that this team still has plenty of firepower while the 5-0 defeat at Liverpool can perhaps be dismissed given Laudrup rested so many first teamers. The  seven games that preceded it saw three clean sheets for Swansea and four goals conceded.

 

Worse still, Bradford's own recent form is pretty ugly - they have only won two of their last 11 games in all competitions, drawing two and losing seven.

 

 

OPTA Stat - Cool Headed Manager: Michael Laudrup twice won the Danish Cup whilst in charge of Brondby (2002/03, 2004/05) and also reached the Copa Del Rey final with  Getafe in 2007/08 before losing to Valencia.

 

Laudrup has plenty of cup final experience, and just needs to transmit his cool-headed approach to the players. The weak team that Swansea played at Anfield is  confirmation (not that it were needed) that Laudrup is dead set on winning this trophy.

 

 

OPTA Stat - Historical Precedent: Since Wednesday's win in 1991 all five finalists from outside the top-flight, including Cardiff City last season, have been defeated.

 

A bad stat for Bradford, confirming that lower league teams have struggled to beat the odds in the modern era.

 

 

OPTA Stat - In-Play Angle: Phil Parkinson's side have won their last nine successive penalty shootouts, a record for any English club, including two already in this  Capital One Cup competition (v Wigan and Arsenal).

 

Here's our silver lining! If Bradford take it to extra time then get behind them! Parkinson's men have already shown their mastery from spot kicks, how could you bet  against them doing it again especially when they will surely be odds-against to do so?

 

Recommended Bets

Back Swansea win to nil @ 2.8 or above

Back Bradford to win if the game goes to penalties (or extra time if you want to take bigger odds)

 

Bet HERE

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