Improving sides to produce goals in the final

 

The final of this year's tournament is a repeat of the first group, but while Nigeria were strong favourites to beat Burkina Faso that day, that's not the case now says Jonathan Wilson...

 

When Nigeria met Burkina Faso in their first group game at the African Cup of Nations, it seemed like a minnow (two wins in 26 previous finals matches, none of them away from Ouagadougou) taking on a giant - nervous giant with a history of underperformance, for sure, but a giant nonetheless.

 

Three weeks later, the Super Eagles are as long as 2.08 to win a rematch against the Stallions 4.6 in the final (those figures are to win in 90 minutes: Nigeria are 1.5 to win the tournament and Burkina Faso 2.9).

 

Burkina Faso's five games - and two of them have gone to extra time - have yielded a total of just nine goals, but all of them were played on the sand of Nelspruit, where the slow surface militated against attacking football. Nigeria, similarly, played out two 1-1 draws at the Mbombela. Once they got away to the flat, grass-based surfaces of Rustenburg and Durban, they opened up, scoring eight goals in three games themselves while conceding two.

 

The Stallions showed in their semi-final against Ghana that - to use their coach Paul Put's expression - they have matured. Having gone behind in that game, they subjected Ghana to sustained pressure and with better refereeing would probably have won the game comfortably without recourse to penalties.

 

Had Jonathan Pitroipa been suspended, they probably would have retreated into their shell and sought to kill the game. As it is, they may be emboldened; the centre-forward Aristide Bance, so often in the past and angry and frustrating figure, had the game of his life in the semi-final and if he can maintain that form it makes little sense to use him only to hold the ball up.

 

He probably wouldn't have played had Alain Traore, the form striker of the group stage, been fit, but he suffered a thigh injury against Zambia that has ruled him out of the tournament. Bance is not such a gifted player - that much is obvious - but his commitment, his selflessness and his ability to gee up the rest of the team could be priceless. The way he sprinted to hug Put after Emmanuel Agyemang Badu had seen the decisive kick saved in the shoot-out against Ghana spoke of the bond between the Belgian and his players.

 

What, though, of the pitch? The only two games played at Soccer City so far in this tournament finished goalless, but that was on a windy rain-soaked opening day when any sort of cohesive football was difficult, so there is little meaningful form to go on.

 

Finals in the Cup of Nations are habitually cagey affairs: the last four finals have yielded just two goals between them, but given both Nigeria and Burkina Faso have become more attacking as the tournament has gone on, Over 2.5 Goals at 2.78 looks attractive.

 

That said, Nigeria could be without the forward Emmanuel Emenike, the joint top-scorer in the tournament (1.96 to remain so) who has a groin injury - early reports on Saturday that he was definitely out were swiftly denied but he is a very major doubt.

 

Ahmed Musa, the 20-year-old CSKA Moscow winger who was such a star of the Under-20 World Cup in Colombia in 2011 and who has already made more appearances for Nigeria than the 28-year-old Bance has for Burkina Faso, can offer pace and trickery from wide if called upon as a replacement but the Super Eagles will miss Emenike's prowess form set-lays, even if that essentially amounts to kicking the ball really, really hard.

 

Victor Moses was forced out of the semi-final after an hour with an ankle injury but it seems likely that he will be able to play. He missed the group game between the sides, when Burkina Faso equalised in the final minute of injury time, but it's easy to imagine his pace and directness unsettling the Bukinabe full-back Saidou Panandetiguiri.

 

Often the pattern is for teams to become increasingly cautious as the tournament goes on; this time the two teams in the final have become increasing aggressive. Goals look to be the way to go.

 

Recommended Bet

Over 2.5 Goals at 2.78

 

Bet HERE

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