Home and Away: Valencia nothing to lose as PSG miss Zlatan

6Mar 2013

Betfair

Jonno Turner looks to select two sides for the win at decent value tonight - focusing on Valencia's trip to France, and a key game for play-off chasing Notts County.

We're off to France for our first pick of the day - and Paris Saint Germain look to protect a 2-1 first leg lead, as they welcome Valencia to the Parc des Princes in the Champions League.

The hosts looked set to keep an all-important clean sheet in Spain in that night, but a goal from Vicente Guaita in the dying moments threw the tie into dissaray, and the Spaniards will hold real hope of getting themselves back into this tonight.

Carlo Ancelotti's side will be missing key players Zlatan Ibrahimovic and Marco Verratti, who are both suspended from the first leg, and they will be big absences to them in the final third - as they attempt to get back on track following a rocky performance against Reims at the weekend.

A 1-0 loss in that game showed up the flaws of PSG - and with the pressure mounting on Ancelotti, it will be interesting to see how they respond to the many questions being asked of them in this clash.

The loss of Ibra in particular can not be underestimated. The Swede has smashed 22 goals in his 24 appearances this campaign, and his side looked lacking in ideas at the weekend without him to lead the line.

Much has been made of the hosts impressive form on their own patch, and they are unbeaten since November going into this one - but not many sides will have attacked them as their guests will be looking to do this evening, desperately in need of a goal.

Valencia go into this encounter having lost just one of their last eight games home and away, and six wins and a draw from their last eight away from the Mestalla suggests that they are more than capable of securing a result here.

Ernesto Valverde's charges have won their last two Champions League outings on the road, scoring four and keeping two clean sheets, and I think that they are cracking odds to pull another impressive performance out of the bag in Paris.

The visitors know that they must score in order to stand any chance of progression in this competition, and for that reason, they may be worth a back - with a view to trading out for a quick profit if they notch a goal first.

With nothing to lose in this game, Los Che might as well go for broke - and I think that they are very good value for the win here, against a PSG side missing their talisman striker.

Bet 1: Valencia (AWAY) @ 4.2

Back to more familiar climes now - and focusing on League One, as Notts County host Leyton Orient at Meadow Lane.

Magpies manager Chris Kiwomya has seen something of a resurgence from his side of late, and they have lost just one of the half a dozen games they've played since he took over at the beginning of February.

A five match unbeaten run since then has seen the home side to 10th in the division, and they are now eight points off the coveted play-off positions with 11 left to play.

The hosts have not lost on their own patch since New Year's Day - and three wins from their last four in front of their own fans suggests that they are hard to beat at the Lane.

Kiwomya has no new injury worries ahead of this one, and is expected to stick with the 3-5-2 formation which fared them so well in a 1-0 victory against Carlisle on Saturday.

Leyton Orient travel up the M1 sitting in 13th place in the table, and just one win from five will have knocked confidence down at Brisbane Road.

Furthermore, one win from eight on the road suggest travel sickness on the part of the visitors - and 11 goals shipped in that time indicates that their defensive weaknesses could play a big part in the outcome of this game.

Russell Slade's side have kept just one clean sheet from their last seven, and his headaches continue this evening as influential defender gary Sawyer remains sidelined through injury.

Bet 2: Notts County (HOME) @ 2.3