Goals in Getafe

14Jan 2013

Primera Division Spanyol

Getafe take on Granada in La Liga tonight in a game that will be live on Sky Sports One at 19:00 and Paul Robinson thinks the odds-on quote for under 2.5 goals is wrong as both sides are missing the services of some of their regular defenders.

We made a profit last week with four winners from seven selections and I'm confident of continuing that form into this one, starting in Spain today.

Getafe are 11th in the table after picking up 24 points from their opening 18 fixtures. Tonight is their game in hand over their rivals and if they manage to take the three points then they will climb to ninth place, just three points off the Europa League places. Winning isn't something they've found easily in recent times though as it's now six without victory in all competitions and four in the league.

Luis García Plaza will again be without defender, Mané, and midfielders, Lafita, Pedro León and Míchel, who are all either injured or suspended. One positive for The Dark Blues though is that they're actually unbeaten in five at Coliseum Alfonso Pérez, winning two and drawing three. As far as the goals go, their matches are averaging 2.78 each time this year, with 50% going over 2.5. Three of their last five have had three or more, with their last two league scorelines reading 4-2 and 3- 1.

Granada are currently lying in 18th place after collecting just 16 points from their opening 18 matches. This is their game in hand though and any kind of positive result will see them move out of the relegation zone on goal difference, so that will be a huge motivating factor for the Andalusians.

A cursory glance at the league table shows us where their problems have been this term as the goals for column only has 14 in it. That's the joint worst tally in La Liga, but the positive for them has been that they have the third best defensive record in the lower half of the division.

Those statistics don't exactly put my bet in a favourable light, however the stats are skewed by their performances at home. On the road, Juan Antonio Anquela's side have seen six of their nine matches go over 2.5 goals, which includes five of their last half dozen. A further positive is that they've not just been thrashed in those games, they have been netting themselves, with the results being 1-2, 3-1, 1-2, 1-0, 4-0 and 1-2.

Like Getafe, Granada are also missing some players, as goalkeeper, Toño, is injured and defenders, Íñigo López and Mikel Rico are suspended.

The chance of this going under 2.5 goals looks like a bit of a toss up to me, so with it trading much shorter than evens at 1.78 it's definitely a value bet to take it on, and that's why I'm making it my lay of the day.