Goals expected as Latics and Saints make acquaintance

2Feb 2013

England - Premier League

Jaymes Monte sifts through the Opta stats and picks out his best bets for Saturday's 3pm kick-offs...

This fixture has taken on something of a grudge-match status over the past few years, as the often self-indulgent Arsenal style meets the often unfairly-criticised more direct tactics of Stoke.

Perhaps then it is a victory for the football purists to learn that the Gunners have won five and lost just one of the last eight Premier League meetings between the clubs, with four of those victories coming in the last four meetings at the Emirates.

I certainly wouldn't want to lay the hosts at 1.47, but neither is it a price that I'd be rushing to back.

Instead I'll suggest a couple of plays on the To Score market. Theo Walcott has scored in each of his last four appearances and can be backed at 2.2 and Olivier Giroud has five in his last three and can be backed at 2.3.

Everton 1.41 v Aston Villa 10.0; The Draw 5.1

Days after losing a must-win game, a trip to Goodison Park is one of the last things on a Premier League manager's wish list.

Everton have lost only one of their last 12 Premier League games, but half (6) of these have ended in a draw, while victory at Villa Park earlier this season ended a run of 12 Premier League games against the Midlands side without a win for the Toffees (D8 L4).

Villa have won just two of their last 20 Premier League away matches (W2 D8 L10), and it's difficult to see them getting anything here.

Both teams have scored in 20 of Everton's last 22 games, while Opta inform us that they haven't kept a clean sheet in their last 17 league matches against Villa. Take the 2.0 about both teams scoring.

Newcastle 4.3 v Chelsea 2.0; The Draw 3.7

Newcastle ended a run of six games without a win by beating Aston Villa in midweek, while Rafa Benitez's uninspiring reign suffered another setback when two Adam Le Fondre strikes at the death denied them all three points at the Madejski.

Chelsea, however, have won three and lost none of their last five Premier League trips to St James Park and have conceded just one goal across those five games, while Newcastle have lost five of their last seven Premier League games on home soil (W2 L5). I doubt punters will be falling over each other to back the Blues at odds of 2.00, but I wouldn't want to be taking them on either.

There is some value in taking the 1.64 about Chelsea scoring the first goal of the game given that they have done so on more occasions than any other Premier League side this season (16).

It is a 6.0 chance that Demba Ba gets that goal and 2.4 that he scores anytime.

Reading 2.54 v Sunderland 3.15; The Draw 3.45

Past meetings between Sunderland and Reading have been perfectly evenly matched with each side wining seven of the 18 previous clashes.

Despite Sunderland having won just three of their last 19 Premier League away games, those three wins have come in their last six games on the road. Perhaps a tentative play on the Black Cats at 3.15 is worthwhile.

Adam Le Fondre's double against Chelsea in midweek makes him the highest scoring substitute in the Premier League this season with six. He is a 7.0 chance to get the last goal of the game here.

West Ham 2.46 v Swansea 3.2; The Draw 3.45

After an impressive start to the campaign West Ham have now lost seven and won just one of their last 11 games in all competitions, and have also kept just one clean sheet in their last 10 Premier League games at Upton Park.

Swansea looked extremely impressive in patches throughout the first half of their midweek game with Sunderland but, perhaps worryingly, created few, if any, clear-cut chances. Michu has now gone five Premier League games without a goal and Danny Graham has left the club to join Sunderland.

Despite The Hammers' poor defensive record Under 2.5 goals looks to be the play at odds of 1.94.

Wigan 2.26 v Southampton 3.55; The Draw 3.6

Amazingly, this will be the first time in history that Wigan have entertained Southampton in any competition, and they do so from a position inside the Premier League relegation zone.

Wigan have failed to keep a clean sheet in their last 13 Premier League home games and won none of the last five there (D1 L4), while The Saints have thrown away 22 points from leading positions this season, more than any other side. Goals should be expected.

Over 2.5 goals can be backed at odds of 1.85 and Over 3.5 is a 3.0 chance. The former looks to be the best bet of the lot.

Recommended Bets

Back Both Teams to Score @ 2.0 in Everton v Villa

Back Chelsea to score first @ 1.64

Back Under 2.5 goals @ 1.94 in West Ham v Swansea

Back Over 2.5 goals @ 1.85 in Wigan v Southampton