Go heavy on goals at the Madejski and Anfield

 

There's a short set of fixtures in the Premier league this weekend but there are key clashes at the top and the bottom, and Andrew Atherley has the stats that count

 

Saturday's clash between Reading and Aston Villa is the stereotypical six-pointer, but the best bet is over 2.5 goals in a match both teams will feel they have to win.

 

A major reason why Reading and Villa are in the bottom three is that they can't defend. Reading have the lowest number of clean sheets in the Premier League (just three in 28 games) and Villa, while slightly better overall with five shutouts, haven't achieved a shutout in their last 12 league games.

 

Inevitably, that has led to plenty of goals in their matches. Reading's games average a particularly high 3.14 goals per game (joint-third-highest in the Premier League) and they are joint-fifth for games with over 2.5 goals (18 out of 28 - 64%).

 

Even more tellingly, Reading have had 10 out of 14 (71%) over 2.5 goals at home and Villa eight out of 14 (57%) over 2.5 goals on the road. And the likelihood of both teams scoring - which is available to back at 1.69 - also points strongly to over 2.5 goals at 1.9.

 

Reading have scored in 19 Premier League games and 16 (84%) have gone over 2.5 goals, as have 10 of the 17 games in which Villa have scored (including all of the last seven). The main drag on the statistics is that Villa have tended towards lower scores in matches against fellow strugglers (including their 1-0 home win over Reading in the reverse fixture) but overall the figures point towards a high-scoring match.

 

The unknown factor is how the importance of Saturday's match will influence the mentality of the two sides. While the notion of the 'six-pointer' is not literally true, of course, performing well in this type of match-up tends to be crucial. From the mini-leagues based on games between the bottom six in the past five seasons, 12 of the 15 top-three finishers have stayed up. In other words, teams that perform badly against fellow strugglers are highly likely to go down.

 

It is notable therefore that the mini-league of the current bottom six shows a sizeable gap between the top three (Southampton, Wigan and Newcastle with 16 points, 14 and 14 respectively) and the bottom three (QPR, Reading and Villa with six, five and five).

 

Goals also look likely at Anfield on Sunday when Liverpool host Tottenham. Head-to-head results between the top seven reveal a couple of interesting points, and the first is that goals have been plentiful when these two teams have been involved.

 

Seven out of eight with Tottenham have had over 2.5 goals, along with seven out of nine with Liverpool. In a combined 16 matches, both teams have scored in all bar one. Both teams to score in Sunday's match is 1.62, which is short but perhaps not short enough.

 

Over 2.5 goals is 1.71 and that looks a good bet.

 

The other aspect of the head-to-head results between the top seven is that Liverpool have yet to win (five draws and four defeats from nine games). Tottenham have won three out of eight, but some of the away defeats have come in extenuating circumstances (the 5-2 at Arsenal was heavily influenced by Emmanuel Adebayor's sending-off and late goals cost them at Manchester City and Everton).

 

Tottenham are the second-best away side in the Premier League after Manchester United and they look overpriced at 4.1 for the win. Given Liverpool's draw stats, Tottenham off +0.5 on the Asian handicap at 2.02 is the safer alternative.

 

Recommended Bets

Reading v Aston Villa over 2.5 goals at 1.9

Liverpool v Tottenham over 2.5 goals at 1.71

Tottenham to beat Liverpool at 4.1

 

Bet HERE

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