Ghana the smart bet to cruise through to the quarters

 

The Black Stars are second favourites in the outright betting and should make the last eight with little difficulty, writes James Eastham.

 

Niger v Ghana (Mon)

Live on British Eurosport, 17:00 GMT, Match Odds: Niger 9.0, Ghana 1.46, The Draw 4.3

 

Niger still stand a slim chance of making it through to the quarter-finals (for a full rundown of the qualification possibilities see here) but there's little reason  to back them based on what we've seen so far.

 

Yet to score a goal, Niger lost their opening game against Mali (1-0) before drawing against DR Congo (0-0). In both games, Gernot Rohr's side were unconvincing.  That's no criticism of him or the players - Niger were outsiders heading into the tournament - but they are unquestionably an unappealing selection here.

 

Ghana top Group B with 4pts from their first two games. In their opening match they let a 2-0 lead slip against DR Congo, drawing 2-2, but were the better team in  beating group second favourites Mali 1-0 last Thursday. That win means a draw here will be good enough for Ghana to go through.

 

Normally a team not needing to win a game is a reason to oppose them, but I can see Ghana going through with a flourish. The coach will be keen to see an improvement  as they can play much better than they have so far, and the fact Niger are likely to throw caution to the wind to keep alive their slim hopes of going through should  grant Ghana greater freedom than they had in their opening two games.

 

If the 1.46 on Ghana winning is too short, consider Ghana -1 Asian Handicap at 1.85. With this selection, you'll get your stakes back if Ghana win by a single goal and make a profit if they win by two goals or more.

 

 

DR Congo v Mali (Mon)

Live on British Eurosport 2, 17:00 GMT, Match Odds: DR Congo 3.95, Mali 2.14, The Draw 3.3

 

If DR Congo play as they did in their opening game - a 2-2 draw against Ghana - they stand a chance of getting the win they need to qualify. If they play as they did  in their second game against Niger - an uninspiring 0-0 draw - Mali should get the point that will almost certainly carry them through.

 

Looking at the match prices and the two sides' performances, Mali are a little short. Their 1-0 opening-game win over Niger was laboured and they deserved nothing from  their second game against Ghana (1-0 defeat). On paper they're stronger than DR Congo but the difference between the teams is smaller than the prices suggest.

 

For that reason you may like to consider the draw at 3.3, DR Congo at 3.95 or DR Congo with some sort of Asian Handicap start. But I prefer the goals markets. DR Congo have to win to go through and Mali are almost but not entirely certain a draw would be good enough to reach the knockout phase. This should lead to an open,  entertaining game of chances.

 

The historic stats also suggest the goals count should rise during this final round of games. At the last five African Cup of Nations tournaments, 46% of final group  games have featured three goals or more.

 

At 2.46, Over 2.5 Goals is more appealing than Under 2.5 Goals (1.63). 'Yes' in the Both teams to Score? market is an alternative at 2.1.

 

Recommended Bets

Best Bet: Ghana -1 Asian Handicap v Niger @ 1.85

DR Congo v Mali Both Teams to Score @ 2.1

 

Bet HERE

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