French MotoGP Betting Preview: Pedrosa on Target

18May 2013

MotoGP

2013 has had three races with three different winners from the three men battling for the championship, meaning it's terribly close at the top of the table as we head to Le Mans. Trent Burton looks into proceedings...

Dani Pedrosa opened his 2013 win account at Jerez with a masterful, if somewhat unexpected victory. The talk of the race though was the battle between Jorge Lorenzo and rookie, and title leader, Marc Marquez. Marquez's last corner overtake on Lorenzo drew criticism from some quarters, inclduing Lorenzo himself, for being too risky but for mine it was nothing more than an aggressive racing manouvere. The sort that Valentino Rossi was once applauded for but now Marquez is chastised over. The one thing it did show, above everything else though, was that Marquez is for real. He's not laying down for anyone and believes he can win the title in his first season.

And that belief continues to reign at Le Mans. A track he's never ridden a MotoGP bike on before yesterday and Marquez's best time of the weekend so far is nearly half a second quicker than the rest. That's a little misleading though. Over the course of the sessions his race pace more on track with everyone else rather than the two quick laps he pulled out this morning. He's a 4.0 chance for the win, third favourite behind Pedrosa and Lorenzo and that seems about right. Although don't sleep on him. The twenty year old is capable of anything.

Usually the king of consistency is Lorenzo but this weekend that crown goes to Pedrosa. Dani is more often than not a slow starter over a weekend but he has been bang on the money here straight out of the truck. That sort of instant pace from Pedrosa generally spells trouble for everyone else when he takes that rare route. A second favourite for victory at 3.25 seems a bit long for me and the Honda pilot is hands down the best value bet of the weekend.

Lorenzo, on account of being Lorenzo, sees himself a 2.88 exchange favourite. He hasn't set the world alight this weekend but he has been thereabouts since the off. On Friday however he found himself behind his team-mate Valentino Rossi for the first time all year. Le Mans is one of Rossi's all time top tracks, surprising perhaps since it is a favourite of very few. He scored two of his very few podiums with Ducati here over the last two seasons and his steady pace, and returnign grina nd confidence so far this weekend means anything hovering around 1.8 for a podium return is a decent investment on the Italian.

But the main topic of the weekend, as it so often is in Le Mans, is the weather, Today was freezing cold, tomorrow it's mean to rain. Or not. No-one really knows. If it's a flag-to-flag wet dry race, as it could very well be, then all the balls go back into the air. If it's wet, look out for Cal Crutchlow and Rossi. If it's damp, look out for the Ducatis. If it's a bit of everything, draw straws.

Le Mans may not be one of the most exciting, or loved, circuits we visit but it always throws up a surprise or two. In the past we've seen unexpected wins for people like Chris Vermeulen in the past and surprise podiums for Rossi. It's always the best race of the year to be sitting by the in play markets as anything can, and often does, happen.