Frank can Gore Baltimore with the first TD

1Feb 2013

Romilly Evans has a look at some alternative markets for the Super Bowl where he likes the look of Frank Gore.

Amid the publicity and hysteria surrounding self-styled Greatest Show On Turf, it's easy to distracted. And the same applies when it comes to trading on the Super Bowl.

Layers are falling over each other to offer many splendored markets in order to attract your business for one of sport's biggest betting events - and the temptation is often to accommodate them. Never really had a strong view on Joe Flacco's wife's game-day attire before, but that 5-1 for blue denim does suddenly seem attractive.

Thankfully, at Betfair, the markets haven't strayed too far into the realms of fantasy. However, it's still important to try and marshal the right sort of stats and strategy in order to sort the wheat from the chaff.

The only snag with First Touchdown Scorer, of course, is that you only get one shy at it. But whether you're playing in that market, or the more routine confines of To Score a Touchdown, the value has to lie with the San Francisco 49ers playmakers.

Running back Frank Gore has already rushed for 1,214 yards this term (a franchise-record sixth straight 1,000-yard season). With Gore lining up alongside his wildcard quarterback Colin Kaepernick, the 49ers boast the two best ground-gainers in the play-offs. Yet while Kaepernick remains a First Touchdown possibility, the NFC Championship game taught us that when things get tight inside the red zone, coach Jim Harbaugh trusts the experienced Gore (who only rushed for 90 yards but bagged a brace of TDs) to "break the plane".

Such a play-it-safe strategy is likely to be adopted in the rarefied air of the Super Bowl where any mistake is magnified. So while Harbaugh may explore more creative options later in the game, expect him to give it to Gore if the Niners get the chance to strike first.

First Scoring Play also appeals as another solid avenue. In the Saints' eight home matches at the ‪Mercedes-Benz‬ Superdome (which plays host this Sunday), only two matches began with a field goal, while the remaining six started with a touchdown. However, that apparent TD bias is due to a home side packed with offensive flair and little defensive backbone.

The Baltimore Ravens and particularly the 49ers are a good deal more balanced. Consider too, that the Super Bowl is a game like no other, where coaches tend to err on the side of caution in the early stages. For that reason, allied to my belief that the 49ers have the offensive edge, the odds on a San Francisco field goal being the first successful play to light up the scoreboard stands out at 4.5. The Ravens may be able the stuff the run early and David Akers (whose level has improved immeasurably during the play-offs) can do the rest.

Of the margins markets, take a look at San Fran to prevail by over 12 points at 3.5 or better. I expect the Niners to get up early in the first half which could see the Ravens abandon their reliable rush game and take to the air in a bid to facilitate a deep strike downfield and contain the clock. Joe Flacco, yet to misfire with a postseason pick, could finally then prove susceptible to interceptions. So this is a game which could get away from the Ravens in the second half.

The statistics bear that assertion out too. In fact, over the course of Baltimore's six losses this term, the Ravens have never managed to narrow the deficit on an opponent in the third and fourth quarters combined. Officially, that makes them the worst come-from-behind team in the NFL, assuming they still go on to lose. If that's not a complete contradiction!

Sure, it's a key distinction - and the Ravens have proven their comeback capabilities already this postseason. As neatly evidenced by their second-half rallies over the AFC No.1 and No.2 seeds (Denver and New England).

So although I really fancy the Niners to lift the Lombardi, let's not get carried away by trying to be too precise here.

Recommended Bets:

Back F Gore to be First/Anytime Touchdown Scorer @ 8.0 or better

Back San Francisco 49ers Field Goal to be First Scoring Play @ 4.5 or better

Back San Francisco 49ers To Win By 12 Points Or More @ 3.5 or better