Formula One 2013: Pre-season testing to affect Betfair markets

2Feb 2013

James Frankland looks at Betfair's Drivers and Constructors Championship markets before the three testing dates, and tries to pick out some value before the odds change...

While it is barely two months since the chequered flag fell on the 2012 season, in just four days the teams will be back on track as the first of three pre-season tests commences in Jerez, Spain.

By then, 10 of the 11 participating teams will have taken the wraps off their 2013 cars (with only Williams delaying until the second test) and talked endlessly about how this will 'be their year'. Testing is the proving ground for those claims, and some will emerge happier than others over the performance of their cars ahead of the new season.

Raw lap-times won't tell the whole story, as teams will be testing a variety of parameters and conditions, and will focus their attention on maximising knowledge of the 2013 Pirelli tyres, given the apparent random nature of last season's opening third where seven different drivers won the first seven races.

This year's tyre is intended to be faster over one lap and also get into its working range quicker, which should reduce the likelihood for shock results as one team looks into the working heat range for the tyre on a given weekend.

With plenty of unknowns still - well, unknown - now is the time to take a chance on where to place your money as things could all change once the true pace of this year's field is known.

Sebastian Vettel goes into 2013 as favourite to make it four championships in a row, a feat which, if achieved, he would share only with Michael Schumacher.

Red Bull have been the form team over the past four seasons and there is no real reason why that should change this year. The rules are largely the same which means that their car will have been developed further from the ultra-quick RB8 that delivered Vettel's third title, and with more consistent tyres the team should not have to wait until the fourth race to get on the top step of the podium.

You can back Vettel at 2.46 to win this year's Driver's Championship.

At 4.3 Fernando Alonso is priced as the most likely challenger to Vettel's dominance, and if he can deliver a season as near-faultless as 2012 with a faster car underneath him, he could well win his third Driver's Championship title to add to the 2005 and 2006 crowns won with Renault.

Those successes seem an age away and it would be a crime if a driver as complete as Alonso did not earn a place alongside Vettel, Senna, Piquet, Lauda, Stewart, Brabham, Prost, Fangio and Schumacher as drivers who won three or more championships.

Jenson Button is third favourite for this year's title, but I'm swayed by the 9.0 available for him. If we look at the end of last year, McLaren ended the season with the quickest car - Button, lest we forget, won the title-decider in Brazil - and he should benefit most from more consistent tyres, enabling him to place his McLaren MP4-28 further up the grid on Saturdays and be more of a factor on race day.

You can also back Button at 2.3 to finish in the top three this year, but I think at this point he is the value bet to win outright.

Button's new teammate Sergio Perez has certainly been talking the talk since his arrival in Woking, openly talking of wanting to win his first race for McLaren and to challenge for the title this year. This might be a big ask for the young Mexican, but he is undeniably quick, well-suited to making the tyres last and could be a factor in certain races.

I think a championship challenge is going to be beyond him this year, but if you are tempted by the odds of 18.5 for Perez to win the title this year, you'd earn a healthy return. My money would go on a top three finish at decent odds once the market gains more liquidity.

Over at Mercedes, Lewis Hamilton has been downplaying expectations which is sensible given the form his team showed last year.

Despite taking a victory in China, Mercedes dropped like a stone and only recorded two other podium finishes and scored just six points in the final six races of the season, finishing with less than half the points of fourth-placed Lotus and a quarter that of winners Red Bull.

Hamilton's odds of 14.5 are long and I would hold off seeing what Mercedes can produce with the W04 before committing your money. He's quite short in the Top Three market at 2.7 but in order to achieve that he would have to be as good as Kimi Raikkonen was last year, and it's a stretch to see Hamilton delivering a win, 10 podiums and a points finish in every race bar one for Mercedes this year.

As with 2012, the season's dark horse could again be Raikkonen, who returned to F1 as if he had never been away and with an improved Lotus E21 at his disposal, could mount a championship challenge this year. Odds of 16.0 are quite long for a driver of Raikkonen's calibre and I feel this is worth some consideration, especially if the Lotus proves to be on the pace in early testing.

In the Constructor's Championship, Red Bull are the favourites at 1.8, with McLaren and Ferrari equal second on 4.0 and Lotus best of the rest on 10.0.

It's hard to argue against backing Red Bull, so I won't - but don't completely rule out McLaren and Ferrari because all good things must come to an end and with stable regulations, teams get closer and closer to the front-runners which means that Red Bull could find it a much tougher proposition to win their fourth consecutive Constructor's Championship.

2013 testing dates

5-8 February - Jerez, Spain

19-22 February - Barcelona, Spain

28 Feb-3 Mar - Barcelona, Spain