Formula One 2013: Kimi's odds slashed after Australian Grand Prix victory

17Mar 2013

James Frankland details the result of the season-opening Australian Gran Prix and updates us on the market changes for both the Drivers' and Constructors' Championships...

Kimi Raikkonen was the surprise victor in the season-opening Australian Grand Prix, charging through from seventh on the grid to score the second win of his F1 comeback.

The Finn made a two-stop strategy work brilliantly to leave himself in clear air ahead of Fernando Alonso, the Ferrari man stopping three times but still not finding enough pace to challenge the Lotus despite having fresher tyres.

Pre-race favourite and pole-sitter Sebastian Vettel streaked away initially but soon found himself under pressure from the Ferrari pair, who vaulted from P4 and P5 on the grid to run second and third early on. The Red Bull's qualifying advantage seemed to disappear in race trim and we will have to wait to see if this is a trend to replicated throughout the season, or a one-off given the lower temperatures of the Australian Grand Prix.

The star of the race looked set to be Adrian Sutil, who twice led the race and had a podium finish in his sights but dropped away to seventh after a gamble on a two-stop strategy failed to pay off.

Sutil, returning to F1 after a year's absence, was hoping for rain which would have freed him from the obligation to run the supersoft tyres, but the heavens failed to open and the Force India wore out the red rubber quickly in the final stint, although he was able to salvage seventh place ahead of teammate Paul di Resta.

Last year, after Jenson Button won this race to kick off the 2012 campaign, I looked up the stats for opening race winner versus eventual champion. Factoring in Button's win, over the last 10 seasons, six times the man who won the season opener went on to secure the title.

As a result, Raikkonen's odds of winning the Drivers Championship this season have been slashed in half to 5.7, with Vettel at 2.62.

Lotus really do seem to have a car which is not only fast over one lap, but consistently quick over longer race stints and the key to that is being kind to its tyres. If they can continue this form over the course of the season, those odds may be as good as they get so it is well worth considering a flutter on a Kimi title in 2013. You can also get odds of 4.1 on the Iceman to score the most race wins this year.

Lotus have also narrowed in the Constructor's Championship from 17.0 to 7.4, while Red Bull, who were at 2.02 have come in slightly at 1.9.

There's a long way to go yet and much will depend on the performance of the two teams' second drivers in determining the destiny of this title. Romain Grosjean finished an anonymous 10th in Australia while Mark Webber recovered from a poor start and middle stint to finish sixth with eight points.

Next up is Malaysia, a very different proposition on a purpose-built circuit with race run in high humidity and a strong chance of wet weather. It could be anyone's.