Football League midweek: McDonald to strike for Gills

4Feb 2013

Betfair

Ian Lamont looks at the midweek action in Leagues One and Two, starting with what Martin Allen says is overdue TV exposure for Gillingham on Monday. On Tuesday, Paolo Di Canio could be in for a rough ride.

Gillingham 1.65 Wycombe 6.2 Draw 4.0 Monday 19:45

Martin Allen is frustrated by the lack of media attention on Gillingham, having mostly led League Two, so relishes the spotlight the live Sky cameras bring tonight. However, recent form really has been "look away now" stuff, meaning there's value in thinking lay them to start with a view to cashing out in play. Do some Opta stats offer caution? Firstly no side has scored more goals in the opening 15 minutes of League Two games this season than the Gills (11). They have scored 48 goals, so 11 is not a particularly high percentage. Wycombe are the only side in League Two yet to score a goal in the final 15 minutes of a match. So if they are behind at that stage for example, hold on rather than cash out if you stand to profit from the other two results. I can't entrust the Gills as short as 1.7. They have one once at home in six, against a Northampton side with a terrible away record.

Laying Gillingham to hope for a bigger price in play is risky (they could be back in top gear after two months of average form), so where's the value? Cody McDonald, returning from Coventry on loan, is perhaps back at his perfect level in League Two, having scored 25 in 43 on loan, from Norwich, at Priestfield before. He has netted in the last two games and is the pick at 5.7 in the first goalscorer market.

Gillingham also had to defend in numbers at times against Northampton. Wycombe have won seven times in 11 games, lifting them clear of the drop zone. But most of those games were against the division's lesser lights. While they were one of several to win at Rotherham, the defeats were against automatic promotion candidates Cheltenham and Exeter. They will need the resilience of five clean sheets during that period here. Gareth Ainsworth expects to give the hosts an "ever better game" than an unfortunate 1-0 defeat in August. However, he notes, cannily, that Allen has rotated his squad. Wycombe should be fresh for not having had a game in a fortnight. This could be a good advert for League Two. I fancy over 2.5 goals.

Back Cody McDonald in the first goalscorer market at 5.7

Back over 2.5 goals at 1.84

Tuesday 19:45 matches

Cheltenham 1.88 Bristol Rovers 4.5 Draw 3.9

With Paul Benson (Swindon) and Byron Harrison (AFC Wimbledon) brought in to fight for places up front, Cheltenham ought to be a force similar to when reaching the play-offs last season. They have lacked an out-and-out reliable scorer. The arrivals also seemed to spur others to score, Shaun Harrad having under produced (seven goals from 24 performances) for a team with automatic promotion ambitions.

At present, however, I still want to be on Rovers. Since boss John Ward's arrival, they have been rejuvenated, netted 12 goals in six games and being beaten just once (at Gillingham). Three straight wins, with matches reaping over 2.5 goals, is hard to ignore, as is their price against a side with one win in six. The Robins did of course have three straight draws before beating out-of-form Torquay last weekend, so punters would be forgiven for laying the hosts, but I'm sticking with the visitors as a continuing value bet.

Back Bristol Rovers @ 4.5

Back over 2.5 goals at 1.86

Colchester 4.2 Swindon 1.95 Draw 3.7

I'll take on any team that is odds-on to win away when their manager has just thrown a massive wobbly because a player (Matt Ritchie) was sold to promotion rivals to potentially avoid going into administration. Friday's Paolo Di Canio tantrum plus Swindon drawing their last three away means 1.95 to win is too short. Those three draws were a 0-0 and two 1-1s in which they came from behind both times, something which gives Joe Dunne's men the chance to build on recent confidence. Admittedly, Colchester's winning streak is just two. But, crucially, it has pulled them out of the relegation spots. Freddie Sears has scored in the last three games, two from the bench, and his skills are really too good for the lower reaches of this division. The U's will find Swindon harder to crack than Walsall and Colchester, so add under 2.5 goals.

Back Under 2.5 goals @ 1.8

Lay Swindon @ 1.85

Scunthorpe 1.6 Portsmouth 6.6 Draw 4.3

Much as there has to be value in Yeovil racking up a sixth straight win, at Oldham, at 2.84, it seems to me Scunthorpe could freeze on this rare occasion of being match favourites. A value bet lay is all about Portsmouth, who have pretty much a different team every couple of weeks. Just three points (all draws) in 16 league games shows Pompey's problems. But they did score twice on Saturday, against relegation rivals Colchester. If they can do that against another drop zone candidate they have a chance of something here. Portsmouth have scored four goals in six games. Scunthorpe have six goals. That's enough for a home lay.

Lay Scunthorpe @ 1.6