Five reasons to be swayed by the Swans

24Feb 2013

England - Capital One Cup

Jonno Turner looks ahead to the Capital One Cup final between Swansea City and Bradford City - and offers five reasons why you should pile in on the favourites.

A whopping seventy-two Football League places separate Capital One Cup finalists Swansea City and Bradford City ahead of their Wembley clash on Sunday - and it's a tie which has captured the imaginations of football fans all over Britain.

1) This one means as much to Swansea as it does to Bradford

Michael Laudrup's side are within touching distance of winning their first ever major trophy - and to secure the silverware on Sunday would cap a meteoric rise for the Liberty Stadium side.

With the Jacks sitting comfortably in the top half of the Premier League, and just seven points behind fifth placed Arsenal, it's easy to forget that just 18 months ago the South Wales side made their first baby steps in the top tier since 1981/2.

And I think that the recent history of the Welsh side - as well as Bradford's impressive list of scalps so far in this competition - will be enough to prevent the Premier League side becoming complacement ahead of this clash.

Laudrup has being playing the media in the last few days in an attempt to inflict just the right amount of pressure onto his squad, and has already pointed out that he considers this game to be a case of 'under-underdog v underdog' rather than 'underdog v big club'.

Indeed, it's worth remembering that he Swans have taken their own fair share of scalps on their way to the final of this competition - with Liverpool and Chelsea both tasting defeat at the hands of the Welsh club.

History buffs may be interested to note that Swansea have lost just one of their last eight meetings with Parkinson's side - but, let's be honest, they are worlds apart now.

That's not to say tomorrow will mean any less to the Welsh, though. As well as a piece of coveted silverware, a win in this final would offer Laudrup's side a guaranteed place in the Europa League next campaign - and that would lift a lot of pressure off the Welsh side over their league run-in.

2) Swansea welcome back well-rested, quality players

Swansea haven't been at their best over the last couple of weeks - just one win since mid-January underlining that.

Indeed, they were thrashed 5-0 at Liverpool last time out, but little can be read into that, as they fielded a much-changed side with this game in mind.

With key players Michu, Angel Rangel and Wayne Routledge to return to the starting line up and chomping at the bit following their rest last week against Liverpool, the Swans' attacking quality will be a worry to their opponents - and if you fancy the hotshot Spaniard to add to his 18 goals this season, you can back him to score first at 4.6.

But I reckon the smart money might lay in Jonathan De Guzman at 9.4. The Dutch international, on loan from Villareal, has a wicked shot on him - and, as designated free kick specialist, he will be on hand to take advantage of any over zealous defending from the Bradford rearguard. He could well add to his five goals this season at Wembley.

3) When Swansea score first, they don't tend to lose

Laudrup will be keen for his side to go out and kill the game from the off - and an early goal could lead to the rout which some are predicting.

Of the last six games in which they've scored, Swansea have nicked the first goal of the game on each of those occasions - and have won four and drawn two from those ties.

That suggests that once ahead, the Welsh side are a decent bet to take at least a point - and for that reason I reckon the 2.08 available on Swansea/Swansea in the Half Time/Full Time market is worth a look.

4) Swansea will have a lot of the ball - and that's where they're dangerous

It's expected that Swansea will enjoy the majority of possession tomorrow. After all, Bradford's previous scalps Wigan and Arsenal had 58% and 63% of the play in their games.

But Laudrup's side will need to show initiative if they are to find ways to break down Bradford in the final third - and having scored 92% (35 of 38) of their 2012/13 goals from open play, they are well equipped to turn the key.

Although the Welsh side don't tend to score from corners, I sense that their pressure may result in the ball being put into touch fairly often. Wigan and Arsenal were awarded 11 and 13 corners a piece in their ties - and Over 13.5 Corners for Laudrup's side is priced at a tempting 2.32 in this final.

5) Ultimately, the Jacks are decent value for the win

Though short, I reckon that Laudrup's charges are priced about right for the win here, at 1.4 - and those odds have drifted slightly from 1.38/1.39 since Wednesday and Thursday last week (not a lot, but every little helps).

But there is much value in the secondary markets, too. A back of Swansea -1 & -1.5 on an Asian Handicap at odds of 1.82 could be one way to maximise profit without asking too much of the Premier League side, and with 12 goals scored in their half a dozen Capital One Cup outings this campaign, the Welsh side do seem to be able to produce goals in this competition.

It might be worth waiting until 10/15 minutes into the game when, if it's still goalless, the odds should start to drift. Laudrup's side have scored seven of their 13 first half goals this year after the 15 minute mark.