Fenerbahce vs Benfica: Expect a slow burner in Istanbul

 

Both Fenerbahce and Benfica have been extremely solid in the Europa League knockout phase, and Kevin Hatchard expects both teams to approach this semi-final first leg  with caution.

 

Fenerbahce vs Benfica, Europa League SF first leg, Thu 20:05 BST, Live on ITV4

Match Odds: Fener 3.05, Benfica 2.6, the draw 3.4

 

Fenerbahce have ventured into uncharted waters, as this is the first time the Turkish giants have reached the last four of a major European competition. Their run has  been largely based on gritty, determined defending - Fener have kept seven clean sheets in the Europa League this season, and no other team has kept more since the  start of the group stage. In all competitions, Fener have produced nine shut-outs in their last sixteen matches.

 

Aykut Kocaman's men have suffered just one defeat in 12 Europa League games, and that was a dead rubber against Borussia Monchengladbach at the end of the group stage.  Sunday's 2-0 defeat at Genclerbirligi in the Turkish Super Lig was Fener's first reverse since March 3, and they have only lost three games in 2013. Fener like to keep  games tight - only one of their knockout-stage matches has been decided by more than one goal, and that was a 2-0 win over Lazio that was secured with a Dirk Kuyt  strike in stoppage time.

 

If Fener are tough to beat, Benfica are even more sturdy. The Portuguese league leaders have put together a 29-match unbeaten run, and they haven't tasted defeat since  a 2-1 Champions League reverse at Spartak Moscow in late October. Jorge Jesus and his players have shown they can dig out results at intimidating venues - the Eagles  managed 0-0 draws away to Celtic and Barcelona in the Champions League, and they have won away to Bayer Leverkusen and Bordeaux in the Europa League. When they were  under extreme pressure at Newcastle United, Benfica not only kept the Magpies at arms' length, but scored an excellent counter-attack goal late on to draw 1-1 and  progress 4-2 on aggregate.

 

Fener have no fresh injury concerns ahead of the match, although midfielder Caner Erkin (who scored the decisive goal in the Lazio tie) is suspended. Benfica have  personnel problems through injury and suspension - centre-back and captain Luisao picked up a knock at the weekend and hasn't travelled to Turkey, while Andre Almeida  and Enzo Perez are both suspended after picking up bookings against Newcastle.

 

The bet that stands out for me is backing Under 2.5 Goals at 1.82. All six of Fener's Europa League knockout games have featured Under 2.5 Goals, as have seven of Benfica's 12 European matches this term. I expect both teams to adopt a patient approach - Benfica have scored eight of their 11 Europa League goals after half-time, while four of Fener's six knockout matches have been goalless at the break. On that basis, I would back the draw in the Half Time market at 2.14.

 

Recommended Bets

Back Under 2.5 Goals at 1.82

Back the draw in the Half Time market at 2.14

 

Bet HERE

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