Federer to master Djokovic

We've reached the end of the 2012 ATP World Tour season and perhaps fittingly the World Tour Finals sees the world numbers one and two face off for the title. Sean  Calvert previews Roger Federer v Novak Djokovic..

Sunday's highly anticipated clash at the O2 Arena between Andy Murray and Roger Federer failed to live up to its billing and it made for a losing day for my wagers.

 

Murray found himself an early break up, but it was more due to a poor start from Federer, who was allowed to regain a foothold in set one before taking it on the tie  break.

 

From there it was plain sailing for an improved Federer, who eased past the line 6-2 in the second set to reach the final where he will face Novak Djokovic.

 

This will be their 29th meeting at tour level in all, with Federer holding a narrow 16-12 lead at the moment and I just about fancy the Swiss at the prices to hold  onto his World Tour Finals title tonight.

 

Djokovic looks short at 1.71 considering that Federer has had the upper hand by three to one in their career meetings on indoor hard courts and this is not a great time in the season to be putting a great deal of faith in odds-on shots as Murray showed yesterday.

 

The interesting thing about their past matches is that the winner has by and large won pretty comfortably, with only their classic US Open semi finals of 2011 and 2010  being the exceptions.

 

The stats show that their three set meetings have all bar a couple been won by at least four clear games by the victor and so Djokovic backers would perhaps be well  advised to side with their man -2.5 games on the handicap at around 2.2 rather than the 1.71 outright.

 

Current form is difficult to assess at this stage of the season, with conditioning likely to play at least some part tonight.

 

There were reports of Federer suffering from various ailments ahead of the Murray semi final, but clearly they weren't troubling him too much and as both can out their  feet up after this match for a while hopefully injury won't come into it.

 

I don't believe we've seen the best of Djokovic this week, although I wouldn't put it past him to produce it this evening, but in a close match to call I have to go  with the value bet, which is for Federer to take it at 2.36.

 

The surface is perfect for the Swiss - in fact he would perhaps like it to be quicker - and his indoor form set against Novak's just about puts me on his side tonight  at the prices.

 

Recommended Bet

Back Federer to beat Djokovic at 2.36

 

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