Expect goals at the Colchester Community Stadium

23Mar 2013

Betfair

Three games in League One and a trip across the pond to Major League Soccer makes up this week's Two and Half Goals column...

Saturday

Preston v Leyton Orient

It's 16th place against 10th in this League one clash, with both sides in danger of being seduced by the comforts of midtable.

Preston have almost secured their safety for the season and need just a handful more points from their last nine games to be sure. Their defence has been a strong point this year. Looking at the table shows Preston to have conceded far fewer goals than any of the sides around them. This can also be seen in recent results, with the Lancashire side's last six games having all been low-scoring.

Leyton Orient, it's true, are still in with a chance of making the play-offs, but that doesn't mean they will. And if they don't make it, it will probably be down to a lack of goals. Yes, they did win 4-1 last week, but only after a 66th minute red-card for Carlisle, which heralded three late strikes.

The reality is, Orient have scored less than any other team in the top half of the table, and have struggled on their travels especially, with four of their last five away games ending up low-scoring.

Recommended Bet

Back Under 2.5 goals @ 1.77

Colchester Utd v Milton Keynes Dons

Pressure, and also a lack of it, can do strange things to teams.

Colchester find themselves far too close to the relegation zone for comfort and it seems to be making them nervous, and more open. The search for valuable points has led them to become more adventurous than we've seen them all season. And that's resulted in more goals, with their last three games producing 10 in total, numbers somewhat out of line with their tight performances throughout the rest of the season.

And it's a similar story with Milton Keynes, whose absence of pressure has seen them turn from uptight and cautious into a much more relaxed side. Following a typical run for them, of five draws in six games, the shackles suddenly came off on March 12th when they suffered a 3-2 loss at home to Shrewsbury. They bounced back a week later with a 3-0 win over Tranmere, before capping that with a 2-1 loss at Crewe.

With nothing to be gained or lost, the Dons look to be enjoying the final chapter of their season. And I suggest we do to, by backing them for goals.

Recommended Bet

Back Over 2.5 goals @ 2.16

Sunday

Tranmere v Stevenage

Stevenage go to Prenton Park without a manager, but at least in the comfort that they've already done all but enough to ensure their League One safety. Luckily for them, the hard work was done early-season. Directors have notoriously short memories though and after a run of 14 defeats in 18 games, opted to part ways with manager Gary Smith.

So team captain Mark Roberts takes over in the hot-seat for their last seven games. And it's only logical to think that the 29 year-old defender will look to play the kind of football he knows best, defensive, while making a case for himself with regards to any possible management opportunities that might come.

Not that Stevenage had been shipping that many goals anyway. Yes, they had been losing, but never by much. Indeed four of their last five away games finished low- scoring.

Tranmere sit slap-bang in the middle of the play-off battle, with every point crucial at this stage. They won't be cavalier about this game, whatever the circumstances, just as they haven't been about any of their other matches, with five of their last seven home games having produced low-scoring results.

Recommended Bet

Back Under 2.5 goals @ 1.74

Chicago Fire v Chivas USA

And we'll finish with a game from the MLS, as the action heads into round four of the new season.

With just three results in, it's hard to draw conclusions. But what does appear obvious is that Chicago are indeed on fire, at least defensively speaking, with five goals conceded and none scored. Chivas too have struggled at the back, also conceding five in their opening three games. The big plus for them though, their ability to score four in reply.

So two teams with defensive frailties come together, and at a point in the season where neither will be too concerned about getting on the end of a bad result. Chicago's three blanks so far make their priority the need for a first goal. And as they push forward, that should expose their fragile back-line to an attack that's looked pretty sharp.

Bear in mind though, we'd expect these sides to head in opposite directions as the season progresses. Last year it was Chicago who impressed, finishing 4th in the Eastern Conference, while Chivas finished in last place over in the West. So expect Chicago to come-good sooner rather than later, and maybe even as soon as Sunday.

Recommended Bet

Back Over 2.5 goals @ 2.1211/10