Expect a firefight as Newcastle face Anzhi

14Mar 2013

Europa Liga

Newcastle United and Anzhi Makhachkala played out a goalless stalemate last week, but Kevin Hatchard expects more of a shootout this time around.

Newcastle United vs Anzhi Makhachkala

Thu 20:05 BST, Live on ESPN

Match Odds: Newcastle 2.56, Anzhi 3.1, the draw 3.4

I must admit I have underestimated Newcastle in their last two Europa League away games. I didn't expect the Magpies to beat Metalist Kharkiv 1-0 in Ukraine, and I certainly didn't anticipate last week's 0-0 draw at Anzhi. The Russians were surprisingly flat, although keeper Rob Elliot was still required to pull off several decent saves.

Newcastle's 2-1 win over Stoke on Sunday eased the club's relegation fears, so boss Alan Pardew can select his strongest available line-up for this match. There will be some notable absentees - French wing wizard Hatem Ben Arfa is injured, as is defensive monolith Fabricio Coloccini, while in goal Elliot will once again deputise for injured first-choice stopper Tim Krul. Anzhi have no fresh injury concerns, although striker Willian is out with a hamstring problem.

With Newcastle set to field a strong line-up in front of a packed home crowd, it's tempting to lean towards a Magpies win, but there are reasons to avoid backing the home victory. Anzhi know a score draw will be enough to reach the last eight, and they have lost just two out of eight Europa League away games. One of those defeats was at Anfield against Liverpool, and the other was a 3-1 reverse at Young Boys when Anzhi had already qualified for the knockout phase. Anzhi can take further solace from the fact they have scored 12 goals on the road in the Europa League, and have netted in seven out of eight road games.

Given Anzhi's firepower and the fact that Newcastle have kept just one clean sheet in their last six home games, I like the look of backing Yes in the Both Teams to Score market at 1.96. I also think Over 2.5 Goals is pretty chunky at 2.36, especially as that bet has paid out in five of Newcastle's last six matches at St James' Park.

Recommended Bets

Back Over 2.5 Goals at 2.36

Back Yes in the Both Teams to Score market at 1.96

Lazio vs Stuttgart

Thu 20:05 BST

Match Odds: Lazio 2.18, Stuttgart 3.75, the draw 3.6

I can't understand why Lazio are odds-against to win this game. Last week they outplayed a struggling Stuttgart side that have won just twice in 2013, coming away from Germany with a 2-0 victory. The Swabians have lost seven out of 12 matches since the turn of the year, and coach Bruno Labaddia is complaining that his squad has been stretched to the limit. Stuttgart are better on the road than they are at home, but that's not saying much given their abject displays at the Mercedes Benz Arena.

Lazio's home form this season is excellent - in Serie A they have won ten out of 15 games, and in the Europa League they have won four out of five matches at the Stadio Olimpico. The market underestimated Lazio ahead of the first leg (they were 3.95 for the win), and they are overpriced here, even though the game will be played behind closed doors after crowd trouble in the previous round.

Recommended Bet

Back Lazio to win at 2.18

Rubin Kazan vs Levante

Thu 17:00 BST

Match Odds: Rubin 1.9, Levante 5.0, the draw 3.55

This tie is delicately balanced after a goalless draw in Spain, but even though a score draw would put Levante through, I think Rubin are in pole position to reach the last eight. The Russians defended solidly last week and were dangerous in the closing stages, striking the woodwork twice late on as a red card for each side created more space.

Levante came close to scoring themselves, hitting the bar after just two minutes, but I fear their best chance to qualify has gone. Midfielder Michel is suspended, while striker Obafemi Martins (who played well in the first leg) has left in acrimonious circumstances to join Seattle Sounders. Los Granotes lack a cutting edge, and they have scored just eight goals in their last ten away games.

Rubin are a safety-first outfit under coach Kurban Berdyev, and they have conceded just two goals in their last five matches. In the Europa League group stage they won all three group stage games without conceding a goal, and even though they lost 1-0 at home to Atletico Madrid in the last 32, they were already 2-0 up from the first leg. Rubin will take confidence from their most recent home match, a 1-0 success against Zenit.

I expect this match to be incredibly tight, but Rubin have the cold weather, the crowd and the artificial surface in their favour. They also have superior strikers, and I think the home win is overpriced at 1.9. Given Levante's lack of firepower, it's also worth backing a Rubin clean sheet at 2.22.

Recommended Bets

Back Rubin Kazan to win at 1.9

Back Rubin Kazan to keep a clean sheet at 2.22