Everton v Stoke: Potters desperate to end losing streak

30Mar 2013

England - Premier League

Jonno Turner takes a closer look at the evening action down at Goodison Park...

Everton v Stoke

Saturday 17:30, live on ESPN

We're off to Goodison Park today - as Everton welcome Stoke City to Merseyside in what promises to be a hard-fought encounter.

The Toffees go into this clash sitting in sixth place in the top tier - just two points off Arsenal who occupy the final European place - and that makes this home clash a hugely important outing for David Moyes' side.

But the hosts will be missing influential midfielders Marouane Fellaini and Steven Pienaar for this game, and those suspensions are bound to be big misses for the Blues, who have lost just one home outing in a calendar year.

That form has played a key part in their charge up the league - and this clash really is a story of opposites, as their opponents travel to the north west in the midst of some miserable away results.

Tony Pulis' side have lost their last five on the road from the Britannia Stadium - and in the bigger picture, that makes just one win in 24 away outings for the Potters.

That will be alarming for the visiting boss, whose side has picked up fewer points in 2013 than any other Premier League side - and he will be keen for his charges to arrest that slump here.

Stoke sit in 11th place on 34 points, but are by no means safe, and just seven points separates them from the drop zone with eight left to play.

With tough home games against Manchester United and Tottenham Hotspur featuring in their run-in, it is vitally important that the Potters pick up some points on their travels, in order to relieve that pressure with the end of the campaign in sight.

Under 2.5 goals

Where Stoke are concerned, you can bet against a goalfest. The Potters have drawn a blank in four of their last half a dozen on the road, but just four shipped in their last four games is no disgrace - and Pulis welcomes back skipper Robert Huth into his rearguard this afternoon following a three game suspension.

Everton, meanwhile, will likely miss the attacking intelligence provided by Fellaini and Pienaar - and this fixture has historically not been too fruitful for the Toffees, who have notched just four goals in their last seven against Stoke.

But Moyes' side have only conceded more than one goal on a solitary occasion in their last five home outings, and that, coupled with the fact that their visitors have managed just one goal from outside the box all campaign, points to a low-scoring encounter here.

In terms of the odds, Under 1.5 Goals is 3.3, which is worth a back if you're feeling brave enough - but I like the look of Under 2.5 Goals, which is a tasty 1.79 and offers a bit more breathing space - and that bet would have paid out on the last seven meetings between these two sides.

Match Odds

Everton are rightly favourites to take the spoils in this clash, at a short 1.64, but their recent meetings with Stoke would suggest that backing The Draw - at 3.95 - is the way to go.

Having drawn a whopping 25 games between them this season, it is clear that both of these teams know how not to lose - and that will be key in the outcome of this game.

Yes, Stoke are on a miserable run on the road - but they are rarely embarrassed defensively, and have conceded just six in six games ahead of this tie.

With the added stability of Huth in their backline, I think we could see them line up strongly in search of a point at Goodison, with Pulis desperate to put a stop to the rot of defeats which have threatened to derail their season.

And with Everton under-strength, and welcoming back a host of players from a tiring international break, we could see the Toffees stumble out of the blocks come 17:30.

First Goalscorer

Everton are likely to offer Leon Osman a more attacking role in the absence of their usual creative midfielders, and the England international is a huge 14.5 to notch first in this tie, which I reckon is cracking value.

He is in rich goalscoring form this campaign, and already has eight on the board - his best ever return.

Kevin Mirallas has found the net in two of Everton's last three Premier League home games, and the flying winger is 8.6 to add to that total in this clash, following his return from international duty with Belgium.

For the visitors, Peter Crouch is an attractive 11.0 to make a nuisance of himself, while if you fancy Michael Owen to get some game time and put a smile on the faces of his ex-employers Liverpool, he's available at 15.0.

Recommended Bets

Back Under 2.5 goals @ 1.79

Back The Draw @ 3.95

Back Leon Osman to score first @ 14.5